The MotoGP 2024 season is living up to its promise of an intense battle between Pecco Bagnaia, Jorge Martin, and Marc Marquez. This rivalry can be compared to the ‘big three’ era of Alvaro Bautista, Toprak Razgatlioglu, and Jonathan Rea in World Superbike, but with more evenly matched equipment. However, this current big three is already showing differences. While there have been some thrilling battles between Bagnaia and Martin, as well as the epic duel between Bagnaia and Marquez at Jerez, it is the mistakes and points dropped that are defining this title race.
Martin’s crash at Jerez, while leading the race, solidified the fact that this championship is determined by errors. He had a significant points advantage over Bagnaia and Marquez going into the Spanish Grand Prix, but his crash erased that lead. Martin described it as a “strange crash” and acknowledged it as a mistake. There doesn’t seem to be any mechanical or tire issues involved. This incident cost him valuable points, possibly around 20 or 16.
On the other hand, Martin was only in the lead because Bagnaia made a mistake at the end of the second lap, jeopardizing his chances of breaking away. The championship positions of both Martin and Bagnaia were comfortable due to the points they gained from their rivals’ errors. Bagnaia and Marquez collided at the Portuguese Grand Prix, and Bagnaia had previously lost a certain victory due to his own mistake. Marquez also had issues with his brakes at COTA. All three riders have left points on the table throughout the season.
Despite Martin’s crash and the opportunity to make up for their non-scores, Bagnaia and Marquez still fiercely raced each other for the win at the Spanish GP. They even made heavy contact as Bagnaia counter-attacked Marquez. They were willing to risk crashing for a mere five-point difference. However, it seems unlikely that this small point swing will determine the outcome of the championship.
Last year, the title race was decided by factors such as Martin’s crash in Indonesia, disagreements over tire choices in Qatar, and Bagnaia’s crash in Barcelona. Currently, Enea Bastianini is in third place, just five points behind Bagnaia, despite not having the same level of performance as the top contenders. Bastianini has consistently finished races and kept himself in the championship conversation, even though he hasn’t shown the same winning potential as Martin, Marquez, and Bagnaia.
While Bastianini may not have the competitiveness to challenge his Ducati peers for the entire season, the rider who can consistently score points like him may have the best chance of winning the championship.