In the world of highly sought-after prospects, failing to surpass (or even meet) expectations immediately can harm a player’s reputation in the short term. This is especially true when the prospect world moves on to the next group of rookies.
Imagine the disappointment felt by baseball fans last July when it came to Grayson Rodriguez. Despite being Baseball America’s former top pitching prospect, his performance in his first 11 major league starts resulted in a disappointing 7.33 ERA. This came after a frustrating 2022 season where a lat injury limited him to just 75.2 innings.
Not only did Rodriguez fail to live up to the initial expectations in the first half of the season, but he also negatively impacted the Orioles.
Many people assumed that Rodriguez would make the Orioles’ major league roster after spring training. The first wave of the team’s rebuild had arrived in 2022, and Rodriguez was expected to contribute to their push for contention.
However, Baltimore had different plans. They decided to send Rodriguez down to Triple-A to start the season, but he was quickly called back up due to an early-season injury to Kyle Bradish.
Unfortunately, Rodriguez’s performance was subpar. He had the second-highest rate of hard-hit balls among starting pitchers as of May 26, and he ranked in the bottom five in barrel rate, batting average allowed, home runs per nine innings, and ERA.
The Orioles, who had a surprisingly strong start to the season, ran out of patience. They sent Rodriguez back down to Triple-A in the hopes that he could reset and potentially contribute to a late-season playoff push.
Luckily, this plan worked.
Rodriguez made his return to the majors in mid-July. His first start back didn’t go as well as hoped, but it was clear that a new plan was in place – he abandoned his cutter pitch.
The reasoning behind this decision was simple. Rodriguez’s cutter was one of the worst-performing cutters in terms of slugging percentage and weighted on-base average allowed. Most pitchers who had a cutter performing that poorly didn’t rely on it heavily, but Rodriguez did in the first half of the season.
So here’s what he did instead:
It’s always a good idea to let go of a pitch that isn’t performing well, but what really helped Rodriguez was that this allowed him to focus on other pitches that performed exceptionally well.
According to Eno Sarris’ model on FanGraphs, Rodriguez’s Stuff+ improved from 105 in his first 11 starts to 126 after his midseason demotion. This put him in the top five among all pitchers in baseball.
Changing his pitch mix and increasing his velocity both contributed to the improvement in Rodriguez’s Stuff+. This can be seen in the changes to his slider before and after his demotion.
The same positive trend can be observed with his four-seamer, curveball, and changeup. Not only did he return with a better plan of attack, but his remaining pitches became more dominant as well.
From July 22 until the end of the season, Rodriguez had the second-best curveball by Stuff+, the second-best changeup, a top-10 fastball, and a top-10 slider. All four pitches had above-average Location+ numbers, indicating that he had good command over all of them. Rodriguez’s Pitching+ of 112 during this time was the best in all of Major League Baseball.
Finally, let’s take a look at the changes in skills before and after everything clicked for Rodriguez.
In terms of his performance throughout the season, Rodriguez fell short of expectations based on his advanced metrics (4.35 ERA compared to 3.93 FIP and 3.78 xFIP). Some individuals may criticize his 2.26 ERA with a 3.71 xFIP during his strong second half. Sustaining a 2.26 ERA is a challenging feat for any pitcher, but I believe that Baltimore’s pitchers have a unique advantage due to the increased outfield dimensions at Camden Yards.
Historically known as a hitter-friendly park, especially for home runs, Camden Yards has been below average in the past two seasons. In fact, it ranked sixth-lowest in park factor overall in 2023 according to Baseball Savant. Since the left field wall was pushed back, Orioles pitchers have consistently outperformed their xFIP. Although these are relatively small sample sizes, it is worth considering when evaluating the preferred home parks for fantasy pitchers or making predictions for the Cy Young award. Personally, I would prefer to have Mount Walltimore on my side.
Another factor to consider is the Orioles’ ability to develop prospects and young players at the major league level. They have had numerous success stories in recent years, including Bradish, Felix Bautista, Yennier Cano, and Tyler Wells, among others, on the pitching side. Furthermore, the Orioles have made history by producing the top-ranked prospect in baseball for three consecutive years, according to Baseball America. Despite their recent graduations, which include standout players like Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, they still have five players listed in this year’s Top 100 overall prospects. It is even possible that they will have the top prospect next year as well.
All of this is to emphasize that Grayson Rodriguez has a strong foundation and supporting cast around him. He made a significant impact in 2023, and there are indications that he could perform even better in the upcoming season.
To conclude, let’s take a look at Rodriguez’s pitch usage and individual Stuff+ numbers from his final 12 starts:
During his impressive run, he predominantly relied on a combination of fastballs and changeups. However, his slider and curve pitches have proven to be highly effective, as we previously discussed. While he doesn’t necessarily need to increase the frequency of his breaking balls due to the quality of his fastball and changeup, it is evident that he hasn’t fully explored all his options. If there comes a day when his changeup is not working as well, he can confidently rely on his breaking pitches. Similarly, if he faces a lineup that struggles against curveballs, he can take advantage of that weakness. This versatility is exactly what we desire in a young starting pitcher.
Despite a challenging start to his career in the majors, Grayson Rodriguez has lived up to expectations and has the potential to continue improving.