Contrary to the common belief, Formula 1 testing can provide insights about the upcoming season. However, we will have to wait until qualifying and the season opener grand prix for the 10 F1 teams to reveal their true potential. So, what are the major uncertainties surrounding the Bahrain Grand Prix and the entire 2024 season? We asked our writers for their opinions.
Despite Ferrari’s impressive performance during pre-season testing and their encouraging long-run times, it is Red Bull that is still considered the favorite. It is widely believed that Red Bull deliberately held back during testing, but the extent of their advantage is still unknown. This raises the question of how big Red Bull’s advantage will actually be. Additionally, there are other important factors to consider. Will Red Bull have a bigger advantage on race day compared to qualifying? Could they be vulnerable on Saturdays, allowing other teams to capitalize on a better grid position on Sundays? Moreover, will Max Verstappen be the only one who can consistently extract the maximum performance from the car, or will Sergio Perez also be able to contribute to the team’s success?
Ferrari’s performance during Bahrain testing has shown significant improvement compared to last year. The numbers speak for themselves. Carlos Sainz’s 10-lap run on C3 tires last year started in the low 1m39s and ended with a 1m41.0s. This year, Charles Leclerc completed a 15-lap run on the same tires, starting with a 1m37.1s and finishing with a 1m38.4s. This indicates a considerable improvement in tire degradation. The question now is whether this improvement will translate into better performance during the race weekend.
Mercedes is confident in their new car, the W15, and believes that it provides a solid foundation for ongoing development. However, its exact position in the pecking order is still uncertain. Testing suggested that Mercedes was in good shape and close to Ferrari in terms of long-run pace. However, they did not complete a full race simulation and admit that they need to work on their single-lap pace. The upcoming races will provide a clearer picture of Mercedes’ performance and their potential to challenge Red Bull.
Alpine is expected to have a difficult start to the season, and the Bahrain Grand Prix will reveal just how far behind they are. Testing indicates that they might even face elimination in Q1. This is not acceptable for a works team, and it puts immense pressure on Alpine. While there have been signs of progress, especially in the second half of last year, it might not be enough if they have built a car that is not competitive. The Bahrain Grand Prix will expose the extent of Alpine’s struggles.
McLaren has had disappointing starts to the past two seasons, and their early performance in this ruleset will be crucial. Lando Norris has previously finished fourth in Bahrain, and McLaren hopes to achieve a similar result this time. They have shown confidence in their development curve and have made progress throughout 2023. However, there are still some weaknesses that need to be addressed, particularly in slow-speed corners. Despite this, McLaren should be in a better position overall compared to previous years.
Red Bull’s second team, RB, has shown potential during pre-season testing. The question now is how much progress they have made. Can they challenge Aston Martin and compete with the top four teams, or will they remain in the midfield? Additionally, if RB becomes a midfield leader, it might face criticism for its close relationship with Red Bull. The Bahrain Grand Prix will provide insights into RB’s performance and their position in the grid.
The Bahrain GP will have a significant impact on the driver market. It will determine whether drivers are in for a challenging year or if they should commit to their current teams. For example, Alex Albon, who is under contract at Williams, will be closely monitoring the competitiveness of his new car compared to other potential destinations for 2025. The performance of Aston Martin will influence Fernando Alonso’s decision to either wait for a Mercedes seat or commit to Aston. Lewis Hamilton’s move to Ferrari will also be evaluated based on the team’s competitiveness. Further down the grid, Kevin Magnussen’s future will depend on whether the progress felt during pre-season translates into actual performance.
The uncertainty surrounding Christian Horner’s future as team principal of Red Bull will not have an immediate impact on the team’s on-track performance. Red Bull had a dominant year in 2023 and has made significant changes to their car design for this season. However, the long-term consequences of this situation will be worth watching.
As cars become more aerodynamically effective, it becomes increasingly difficult to follow closely. Developments like the Mercedes front wing, designed to create greater outwash, can lead to a more turbulent wake. While it is unlikely to be a drastic change, following other cars might become more challenging.
The friction between the championship and the governing body, as seen in the case of Andretti’s denied entry into F1, is likely to continue. It is clear that many people want more teams on the grid, but the existing teams are protective of their share of the prize money. Another clash between the FIA and F1 seems inevitable given the recent tensions.
There have been instances of cars breaking drain covers and causing disruptions during testing. The increased size, weight, and downforce of the current cars put more stress on the track surfaces. While some circuits may have weaknesses or structures that are not as robust as before, it is crucial to find proper solutions to prevent such incidents.
In conclusion, the Bahrain Grand Prix and the 2024 season hold many uncertainties. The performance of teams like Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercedes, Alpine, McLaren, and RB will determine their positions in the grid and the driver market. The aerodynamic developments and potential clashes between the championship and the governing body add further intrigue to the upcoming season.