The Houston Astros made headlines recently by securing the services of their star second baseman, Jose Altuve, for the foreseeable future. Altuve signed a lucrative five-year, $125 million contract that will keep him with the team until he reaches the age of 39. This move has been a topic of discussion for the past year, as Altuve was set to become a free agent after this season. Another player in a similar situation is third baseman Alex Bregman, who is entering the final year of his nine-figure contract and will soon hit the open market. However, negotiations with Bregman are expected to be more complex due to his age, as owner Jim Crane acknowledged in an interview with the Houston Chronicle.
Crane stated that the organization will definitely make a long-term offer to Bregman before he becomes a free agent. However, he also acknowledged that Bregman’s age presents a unique circumstance. Bregman, like Altuve, is represented by the Boras Corporation and is set to enter free agency before his 31st birthday. In contrast, Altuve would have been 34 years old at the start of a potential free agent deal. This age difference creates different expectations in the market, especially considering the disparity in positions. Second basemen have not received the same level of lucrative contracts as third basemen in recent years. Given Bregman’s age and position, a deal ranging from seven to nine years in length seems plausible.
Looking at recent contracts in MLB, the difference in market value between second basemen and third basemen becomes apparent. Prior to Altuve’s extension, the largest contract for a second baseman in the past five years was Marcus Semien’s $175 million deal. In contrast, third basemen like Manny Machado and Anthony Rendon have received contracts worth $300 million and $245 million, respectively. The age at which a player signs a contract also plays a significant role. For example, Aaron Judge signed a $360 million contract that began when he turned 31, while Josh Donaldson’s contract worth $92 million started at age 34.
During the press conference announcing Altuve’s extension, Scott Boras, Bregman’s agent, was asked about the possibility of a Bregman extension. Boras did not rule it out, stating that Bregman is open to listening to what the Astros have to offer. However, as previously mentioned, the Astros have been hesitant to make the type of long-term commitment that would be required to sign Bregman. Owner Jim Crane has never given a player more than a $150 million guarantee or a contract longer than Yordan Alvarez’s six-year deal. Bregman’s performance and market value suggest that he will surpass these figures by a wide margin.
Assuming Bregman rejects a qualifying offer, a seven-year deal would be the minimum expected, with a longer contract being considered likely. Bregman is poised to be the top third baseman on the free agent market next year and could be one of the top overall free agents. The Astros would need to make adjustments to their payroll to accommodate a Bregman extension, but it is feasible. Adding Bregman’s contract and arbitration raises for other key players would increase the payroll, but the team has shown a willingness to spend, with a projected $240 million payroll in 2024. The frontloaded nature of Altuve’s contract also allows for flexibility in future seasons. While a Bregman extension would represent a departure from the team’s previous contractual norms, it is not entirely out of the realm of possibility.