Two years ago, Tyler O’Neill was seen as a future cornerstone of the Cardinals outfield. O’Neill had displayed glimpses of his potential as a top-100 prospect throughout his first three seasons in the MLB. However, it was in his age-26 season when everything seemed to click for the Canadian player. He boasted an impressive .286/.352/.560 batting line with 34 home runs over 537 plate appearances. Additionally, O’Neill showcased exceptional defense in left field, earning him a Gold Glove award. His well-rounded performance resulted in a 5.5 fWAR, which ranked him among the top players in the league. As a result, O’Neill finished eighth in NL MVP voting.
Unsurprisingly, during the 2021-22 offseason, O’Neill and the Cardinals engaged in discussions regarding a potential multi-year contract extension. The details of the negotiations were unclear, including whether the deal would cover only O’Neill’s arbitration years or extend beyond that. However, the Cardinals ultimately won an arbitration hearing against O’Neill, resulting in a $3.4 million salary for the outfielder in 2022, instead of the $4.15 million he had desired. Looking back, it may have been fortunate for the Cardinals that they did not commit to a long-term deal, considering O’Neill’s performance in the following two seasons. Both parties were likely dissatisfied with O’Neill’s results during the 2022-23 seasons.
Since Opening Day 2022, O’Neill has struggled at the plate, hitting just .229/.310/.397 with 23 home runs over 649 plate appearances. His weighted runs created plus (wRC+) of 98 indicates slightly below-average offensive production. One notable factor contributing to this underwhelming performance is his limited playing time. O’Neill was only able to participate in 168 out of a possible 324 games due to various injuries. In 2022, he was sidelined by a hip impingement and a hamstring strain, limiting him to 96 games. In 2023, a lower back sprain and a foot sprain further hindered his playing time, resulting in only 72 appearances.
O’Neill’s injury history complicates the evaluation of his abilities. It remains uncertain whether his career year in 2021 reflects his true potential if he can maintain good health. Alternatively, some may argue that his outstanding 2021 campaign was an outlier, especially considering his limited time on the injured list. It is worth noting that O’Neill’s impressive .366 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) may have been influenced by factors such as his speed and baserunning skills, which allowed him to convert more ground balls into base hits. Additionally, his walk rate was below the league average in 2021, although he demonstrated improved walk numbers in 2022-23, as well as in the 2020 season.
Unfortunately for O’Neill, his strikeout rate has remained consistently high since his MLB debut in 2018. Among all batters with at least 1600 plate appearances, O’Neill ranks seventh with a 30% strikeout rate. Although his strikeout percentage has improved in the last two seasons, his tendency to swing and miss has limited his effectiveness as a hitter, making him somewhat one-dimensional.
O’Neill’s trade value may have been negatively impacted by the trade rumors surrounding him during the 2023 season. With the Cardinals’ outfield depth and his underwhelming performance in 2022, O’Neill appeared expendable, prompting speculation about potential trades. Although the details of any offers or discussions remain unknown, it is evident in hindsight that the Cardinals might have benefited from trading O’Neill while his value was higher.
The 2023 season proved to be challenging for O’Neill, and it began with an uncomfortable situation when he was benched by manager Oliver Marmol due to a perceived lack of effort in baserunning. This incident seemed to foreshadow the end of O’Neill’s time with the Cardinals. However, the team ultimately retained him at the trade deadline, despite making other sell-off moves.
In December, a trade finally materialized, with the Red Sox acquiring O’Neill in exchange for pitching prospects Nick Robertson and Victor Santos. Robertson, ranked as the 25th-best prospect in the Cardinals’ farm system by Baseball America, made his MLB debut in 2023 with the Dodgers. The return for O’Neill was considered somewhat disappointing for the Cardinals, especially compared to what they might have received in a trade earlier in the offseason. From the perspective of the Red Sox, however, the trade represents an opportunity to acquire O’Neill at a lower value. The Royals and Mariners, O’Neill’s former team, were among the other teams rumored to have interest in him, and it is likely that several other teams inquired about his availability.
Moving forward, O’Neill’s health will be the most significant factor in determining his success. Joining the Red Sox provides him with an advantageous landing spot to regain his hitting prowess, given the favorable dimensions of Fenway Park. It is easy to envision O’Neill launching home runs over the Green Monster, although the wall will also present a challenge for him as the team’s new left fielder. After winning Gold Gloves in 2020 and 2021, O’Neill’s defensive performance has been closer to average in the last two seasons. Therefore, he will aim to rebound both offensively and defensively.
O’Neill will turn 29 in June and is set to become a free agent after the 2024 season. The Red Sox offer him ample opportunity to showcase his abilities, as the team navigates between a partial rebuild and a pursuit of contention. Buying low on a former MVP candidate like O’Neill could prove to be beneficial for either direction the team chooses. However, another year of struggles could limit O’Neill’s future prospects to platoon roles and one-year contracts. On the other hand, if he can stay healthy and replicate his impressive 2021 performance, he may secure a lucrative multi-year contract next winter.
According to the Source mlbtraderumors.com