“It appears that he is the frontrunner for tomorrow.”
This statement would typically be made about a Ducati rider on the eve of the 2024 Qatar Grand Prix. After all, Ducati has been dominating at Lusail, winning four out of the last five grands prix and claiming victory in the track’s first sprint in 2023. To add to their success, Jorge Martin led every lap to win the second sprint on Saturday, the day before the main event. Ducati has not lost a MotoGP race since last September.
However, Marc Marquez was not referring to Martin when he revealed his favorite for the Qatar GP. He was actually talking about Aleix Espargaro from Aprilia. Espargaro’s impressive tire management during the sprint race caught the attention of the six-time MotoGP champion.
While the two riders ahead of Aprilia – Martin and Brad Binder from KTM – finished the 11-lap sprint in the low-1m53s, Espargaro managed to achieve high-1m52s. He overtook Pecco Bagnaia and was quickly catching up to Binder. This performance made Marquez believe that Espargaro and Binder had a better pace than Martin.
Martin, despite his eighth sprint win in the last nine attempts, expressed doubt about his chances of winning on Sunday. He admitted, “I feel like Brad and Aleix have a slight advantage at the moment. Let’s see if we can keep them behind. They [KTM and Aprilia] are really tough to beat on this track.”
Martin’s main concern is an issue that has been troubling him since the test – rear tire chattering. He initially thought it had been resolved, but now he believes it hasn’t completely gone away. He expects it to worsen during the 22-lap grand prix. Martin acknowledged that he couldn’t ride perfectly due to this issue and expressed hope that they would find a solution before the race.
Despite retaining a small lead over Binder on the final lap, Martin admitted that without his pole position, he wouldn’t have won. He also noticed that the rear tire chattering was present in other riders’ data, suggesting it might be a problem specific to the 2024-spec Ducati.
Bagnaia, Martin’s rival from the 2023 season, was more upset about a minor qualifying error than the rear tire chattering. He made a brief off-track excursion that didn’t affect his lap time but cost him a better starting position. Bagnaia was confident that this mistake could be rectified, as he was closing in on Binder during the race. However, he also experienced rear tire chattering, which he attributed to spiking tire pressure. He believed that some adjustments were needed to rebalance the bike.
Bagnaia was impressed with his competitors, especially Espargaro. He observed that KTM was similar to his team, while Aprilia showed impressive progress in the last few laps. He followed Espargaro closely and learned a lot from him.
So, can KTM or Aprilia prevent Ducati from winning the season opener? The answer seems to be yes, but it won’t be easy for either team. Binder, who had a strong start, felt like he was being outperformed in terms of acceleration. He hopes that a more consistent drop-off in performance will compensate for this deficit.
For Espargaro, the race distance is in his favor. The key for him is a better start, as he dropped from second to fourth off the line. He acknowledged that Aprilia has made progress with the clutch but still needs further improvements. He struggled in the early laps but felt more comfortable as the race progressed. Espargaro praised the Aprilia’s performance in the corners and expressed his enjoyment of riding the bike.
Does KTM and Aprilia’s strong performance suggest that the season will be more competitive between manufacturers than anticipated? Martin and Espargaro are uncertain. Martin believes that the Desmosedici is still more complete overall, and the availability of data from pre-season testing has leveled the playing field. Espargaro echoed this sentiment, acknowledging that their top-three performance might not be entirely representative due to the extensive testing done at this track. However, both riders are determined to fight hard and challenge the dominance of Ducati.