Ferrari had a strategy to propel Ollie Bearman into Formula 1. However, their plan did not involve the 18-year-old making his debut for Ferrari itself in 2024. Bearman’s status as Ferrari’s top junior driver and his evident potential meant that it was always a possibility for him to follow in the footsteps of Charles Leclerc and race for Ferrari in F1 one day. Unexpectedly, Bearman has achieved this several years ahead of schedule, which poses an interesting dilemma for Ferrari. Is their original plan for Bearman still sufficient?
Despite finishing seventh in Saudi Arabia, Bearman’s performance did not change Ferrari’s perception of him. Ferrari was already well aware of his potential, as was Haas after Bearman’s impressive work in Friday practice sessions last year. Therefore, it is highly likely that Bearman will secure a race seat with Haas in 2025 and 2026.
After witnessing Bearman’s skills firsthand in Jeddah, Leclerc stated that it is only a matter of time before Bearman permanently joins F1. There is no doubt about this, and it is expected to happen no later than 2025. However, the details beyond that are uncertain.
Initially, Ferrari had no intention of giving Bearman a full-time race seat in the near future. Their plan was to keep Carlos Sainz alongside Leclerc for the next couple of seasons and then sign Lewis Hamilton for 2025. Regardless of the path Ferrari had chosen, Bearman was not part of their short-term plans. Ferrari wanted Bearman to win Formula 2 this year, gain experience with another F1 team for a few seasons, and then be called up to partner Leclerc once he had proven himself.
Bearman has already made progress towards achieving this goal. Now that he has showcased his abilities to a wider audience, the situation has become less straightforward. This raises questions for Haas, as another team may be interested in securing a loan deal for Bearman. It also presents a complication for Ferrari if they do not have a more competitive option for Bearman in the next few years and other teams are aware of his talent.
Nevertheless, Ferrari will be thrilled with Bearman’s F1 debut and will not immediately worry about what to do with such a valuable asset. For now, Ferrari has indicated that nothing will change, and Bearman’s main focus should remain on Formula 2. He needs to concentrate on closing the gap in the championship.
Ironically, Bearman had to withdraw from his F2 commitments in Jeddah, where he had secured pole position, in order to make his F1 debut. This means he is now at the bottom of the championship, despite starting the year with the goal of winning it to guarantee his F1 debut.
Vasseur, the team principal, emphasized the importance of not jumping to conclusions and stated that Bearman will have other opportunities to test the car and participate in practice sessions throughout the season. The main focus remains on F2, as Bearman faces a significant challenge in that championship.
Undoubtedly, Bearman’s F1 debut in Saudi Arabia has accelerated his path towards a full-time seat in the future. However, the question remains: should he continue to be patient, improve, and see where he ends up in a few years?
Bearman may be too talented to follow that path. Ferrari replaced Kimi Raikkonen with Leclerc after just one season in F1. However, Hamilton is not Raikkonen. He is a high-profile signing who is likely to perform at a higher level than Raikkonen did in 2018 when Ferrari made that decision.
This is not about whether Ferrari is obstructing Bearman’s path by signing Hamilton. Currently, the Ferrari lineup for 2025 and 2026 is exceptional. However, it is a relevant factor in how Ferrari manages Bearman’s development while also ensuring that he remains a long-term option for the team.
Spending a couple of years at Haas, competing in the midfield, would be acceptable. However, spending a couple of years at the level of Haas in 2023 would be a waste. It is highly unlikely that Ferrari will part ways with Hamilton or suddenly decide that Leclerc is not worth it after just 2025. Additionally, if the Hamilton/Leclerc lineup continues to excel in 2026, Ferrari will likely want to maintain it.
Mercedes learned from their experience of loaning George Russell to Williams for three years that such a move can lose its value quickly, even though there is always something to be learned. A more appropriate comparison might be the Alpine/McLaren saga involving Oscar Piastri in 2022. It demonstrated what can happen when a highly regarded driver lacks clarity and support from their parent team. Young drivers need to be patient to some extent, but it can backfire if they are simply placed somewhere without a clear path to something bigger.
Bearman should, ideally, have a clearer path to Ferrari and stronger support from his parent team than Piastri had from Alpine. Therefore, the timeline should still be acceptable, and a two-year apprenticeship at Haas should work. The most important thing for Ferrari is to ensure that Bearman understands that he will not spend the next couple of years waiting for an opportunity that may never come.
If Ferrari fails to respond appropriately to Bearman’s impressive debut, he will have no shortage of interested alternatives.