The first qualifying session of the Formula 1 season provided some clues, but it is the Bahrain Grand Prix on Saturday where we will find the answers to some pressing questions for 2024. Our writers were asked to identify the biggest uncertainties that should be resolved by the end of the race. Ferrari’s team principal, Fred Vasseur, claimed that the team has made significant progress in managing tyre degradation compared to last year. Both drivers are satisfied with the car’s consistency and believe it is using the tyres more effectively than in 2023. This race will be the first test of whether Ferrari’s improvements have made it a more versatile contender.
In the previous year’s Bahrain Grand Prix, Charles Leclerc narrowly missed out on pole position but struggled in the race. Leclerc retired on lap 40, already trailing by 25 seconds, while Carlos Sainz finished nearly 50 seconds behind the leader. The Bahrain circuit is known for its emphasis on tyre management, making it a good indicator of how well Ferrari handles its tyres. If Ferrari can avoid a significant drop-off in performance, it will confirm the progress they have made. Additionally, if Leclerc’s qualifying pace translates into a stronger race performance, it will bode well for the rest of the 2024 season.
In qualifying, there was a tight battle between eight cars from five different teams, with a mere three tenths of a second separating them. The competition was fierce among Ferrari, Mercedes, McLaren, Aston Martin, and Red Bull’s Sergio Perez. This fight extends beyond Ferrari’s performance, as all eight drivers will likely believe a podium finish is within reach.
Mercedes will be evaluating whether their setup adjustments for the race will pay off, particularly for Lewis Hamilton, who may have sacrificed some qualifying speed. McLaren’s Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri have shown impressive pace during Friday’s long runs, while Perez and Alonso have also demonstrated strong performances. The order of this competitive group of cars at the end of the race is difficult to predict, but it promises to be an exciting spectacle.
In the 2023 season finale, Nico Hulkenberg qualified eighth but had no chance of scoring points for Haas. However, for the 2024 season opener, Hulkenberg has qualified in the top 10, despite the car not being fully optimized for one lap. It remains to be seen whether Haas can capitalize on this improved performance and achieve an unlikely points finish. The race will be a true test of the car’s consistency and its performance compared to other teams.
The top nine places on the grid in Q3 were dominated by the top five teams after testing. If this trend continues into the race, it will leave RB, Williams, Haas, Sauber, and Alpine with few opportunities to fight for positions. Red Bull has been somewhat disappointing in Bahrain, but Yuki Tsunoda came very close to denying McLaren’s Oscar Piastri a place in Q3. Tsunoda expressed concerns about the team’s long-run pace but believes they have identified the right direction to improve. Daniel Ricciardo, Tsunoda’s teammate, was disappointed with his qualifying performance but remains confident in the team’s overall potential. The race will determine if Red Bull can challenge the top teams and if Tsunoda’s impressive qualifying lap was an accurate reflection of their pace.
Alex Albon is Williams’ best hope for points, and his ability to move up from 15th to 10th in last year’s Bahrain GP cannot be discounted. However, Albon acknowledges that the competition has also improved, making it challenging to secure points. Sauber and Alpine drivers failed to progress from Q1, but they remain optimistic that their performance will improve in the race.
The Bahrain Grand Prix will be the first full F1 race to implement the revised drag reduction system rule, activating it on the second racing lap at the start and after restarts. While this change is not expected to have a significant impact, it will be interesting to see if it makes any difference or if it simply creates a DRS train earlier in the race. Another crucial factor in the quality of the race will be whether the cars follow worse than in the previous year. The Bahrain race will serve as a test to determine if there has been any regression in the cars’ ability to follow closely. If the race becomes a processional event with a dominant winner, it may not provide the exciting season opener that fans hope for.