Alcaraz had a slim chance of surpassing Djokovic as the number one player in the rankings after the Sunshine Double in March. However, his hopes were crushed early on in Brazil.
During his first-round match against Thiago Monteiro, the two-time Grand Slam champion injured his ankle and was forced to retire after only two games.
As a result of his retirement, Alcaraz will lose 300 points this week. This is significant because he was the runner-up to Cameron Norrie last year. Meanwhile, Djokovic’s lead at the top of the rankings will be even more substantial, with Sinner and Medvedev also closing in on the Spaniard.
Here is the current top four in the rankings:
1. Novak Djokovic – 9,855 points
2. Carlos Alcaraz – 8,805 points
3. Jannik Sinner – 8,270 points
4. Daniil Medvedev – 8,015 points
Djokovic’s lead over Alcaraz is 1,050 points, and it is expected to increase in the coming month. This is because Djokovic does not have any points to defend until the clay-court season.
The next tournaments for Djokovic, Alcaraz, and Sinner are the ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells Open and the Miami Open in early March. Medvedev, on the other hand, will be participating in the Dubai Tennis Championships next week. However, he has 500 points to defend as the defending champion, so he may either maintain his current points or lose some.
All of the top players will then compete in the Indian Wells Open, where Alcaraz will lose 1,000 points as the defending champion. Medvedev will also lose 600 points as the runner-up from last year. Sinner lost in the semi-finals and will drop 360 points, while Djokovic did not participate.
Therefore, even if Alcaraz successfully defends his title, Djokovic’s lead of 1,050 points will only increase, depending on how far he progresses in the tournament.
If Alcaraz loses early or is unable to defend his title due to injury, it will not only benefit Djokovic in extending his lead, but Sinner may also have a chance to replace him as the world number two after the Indian Wells event.
A similar situation will occur at the Miami Open, as Medvedev has 1,000 points to defend, Sinner has 600 points, and Alcaraz has 360 points. Djokovic did not compete last year.
Therefore, Djokovic is guaranteed to remain at number one until after the Miami Open on April 1st. This will mark his 418th week at the top of the ATP Rankings.
While it is not mathematically impossible for Sinner to surpass Djokovic and claim the number one spot, it would require him to accept a late wildcard for an ATP 500 event next week, win that event, and then continue his success at the Indian Wells Open and Miami Open.
Although not impossible, this scenario is highly unlikely.
According to the Source tennis365.com