Formula 1’s reigning champion will conclude the 2024 ‘launch season’ by unveiling its RB20 on Thursday evening. Each team vying to challenge Red Bull this year has revealed their 2024 contenders and set their goals for the season – some more ambitious than others. But should Red Bull’s main rivals be worried based on the cars and hints they have given? Here is our assessment of each team:
Ferrari, in my opinion, does not inspire full confidence in terms of catching up to Red Bull. They have scrapped their previous concept and started fresh from an aerodynamic standpoint. It seems like they want a solid foundation for the next two seasons, something that the drivers can trust and perform well with. This sentiment was echoed by technical director Enrique Cardile during the launch, and it reflects in the design of the car, which is not particularly groundbreaking. While it meets the criteria of a modern F1 car, it doesn’t push the boundaries in any significant way. Additionally, I have concerns about Cardile’s differing views on the importance of suspension compared to other technical directors in this era of cars.
Taking a glass-half-full perspective on Ferrari’s SF-24, let’s assume that their unique rear pullrod suspension is not a disadvantage. Ferrari has shown good performance on certain tracks, especially street circuits, with strong traction and compliance over the curbs. Clearly, the Ferrari platform provides a comfortable ride under specific conditions. If they have improved their aerodynamic performance and added proper race pace to their qualifying prowess, they could pose a threat. However, Ferrari needs to deliver on their aero work, and their rear suspension choice should not hinder their rear-end aerodynamics like it did last year. Other teams prefer pushrod suspension due to its aerodynamic advantages, so Red Bull might view Ferrari’s car as a missed opportunity.
I have reason to be cautiously optimistic about Mercedes. Unlike Ferrari, they have innovated quite aggressively and deviated from their previous car concepts. The new car has a more cohesive look, and its front wing and sidepod design showcase sophistication. If this reflects their overall understanding of their past issues, Lewis Hamilton may question his decision to leave at the end of the year. Toto Wolff, the team principal, has never made bombastic statements at the start of an F1 season, even when Mercedes was clearly dominant. However, he expressed cautious expectations for 2024, aiming to be slightly closer to Red Bull than in 2023. Given Mercedes’ track record, it is highly unlikely that they will fail to address and rectify their problems for two consecutive designs. The 2024 car shows signs of change and innovation, suggesting real progress.
McLaren’s MCL38 has a clear connection to its predecessor. If you think it looks similar to the car that performed well in Abu Dhabi, you’re correct. Starting from a strong foundation is not a bad place to begin, considering that the previous car, the MCL37, outscored all but Red Bull’s dominant RB19 from the Austrian Grand Prix onwards in 2023. While it may not have required the same aerodynamic overhaul as Ferrari and Mercedes, McLaren needed the winter break to make significant underlying changes to bridge the gap to Red Bull. They have proof of concept from 2023 and are confident in their development. With better facilities and new technical figures, McLaren has the potential to worry other teams. They showed promise in challenging Max Verstappen last year, but they need to sustain their trajectory and avoid repeating previous setbacks.
Aston Martin’s performance is unlikely to cause concern for Red Bull. They benefited from the struggles of McLaren, Mercedes, and Ferrari in the first half of 2023 but regressed to their expected position as an upper midfield team. If Aston Martin has improved their in-season development, they could be a nuisance in the fight for best of the rest. However, I do not expect them to finish higher than fifth in the championship, unless Mercedes and Ferrari encounter major issues. Even though Aston Martin claims that Red Bull is beatable, the reality is that they were rarely able to challenge Red Bull in 2023. Aston Martin’s chances this year are more optimistic, and their turnaround in 2023 deserves recognition. With the addition of former Adrian Newey apprentice Dan Fallows and a new operational factory, Aston Martin has a better chance of keeping up in the development race. Their understanding of the car seems improved compared to last year, although pre-season comments should be taken with caution. Aston Martin endured difficulties in the latter part of 2023, but their experiments may pay off in 2024, resulting in a more consistent year with better progress.
Red Bull 2, the sister team of Red Bull Racing, is unlikely to challenge its sibling. It may consistently lead the midfield group, similar to its position at the end of 2023, and potentially achieve notable results. If they have made progress with an RB19 platform, they should have a competitive car. While they may be closer to Red Bull Racing than a year ago, it won’t concern the main team. However, if Red Bull 2 becomes highly competitive, it could create tension and further ignite the debate surrounding shared ownership and team relationships. McLaren, in particular, has been vocal about this issue. The only potential threat to Red Bull’s dominance lies in a personnel crisis behind the scenes, particularly if team principal Christian Horner departs abruptly due to an ongoing investigation. Red Bull’s well-established and tightly-knit operation could quickly unravel under such circumstances. However, Red Bull’s advantageous position under the current rules suggests they can weather the storm even without key leaders like Horner. The success of Red Bull’s 2024 car is unlikely to be compromised, and any potential disruption would primarily affect the management and race team.
The progress made by Ferrari, Aston Martin, McLaren, and Mercedes is contingent on Red Bull’s advancements. Based on limited spy shots of the RB20’s testing at Silverstone, it appears that Red Bull has not remained stagnant. Competitiveness is relative to the performance of competitors, and there is no absolute measure. The lap times may vary, but as long as it is consistent across all teams, the level of competitiveness remains the same. The goal is to find the elusive advantage that other teams have not discovered, allowing any team to gain an edge. With the regulations entering their third year, the cars are becoming more similar, unlike the previous regulations where high and low-rake cars had significant differences. Therefore, instead of one team closing the gap to the leader, all teams are expected to converge. It would not be surprising to see a one-second or one-percent grid split on multiple occasions this season.
According to the Source the-race.com