Round 4 of the 2024 FIA F1 World Championship is expected to be an easy victory for the reigning World Champions, despite Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez suggesting they will put up a fight at Suzuka.
I will call their bluff as nonsense. The only thing standing in their way is themselves, such as mechanical issues or other unforeseen circumstances. If the Red Bull RB20 is vulnerable at all, it will be at tracks that require high downforce, like Melbourne, Monaco, and Hungary. However, Suzuka is known for being well-suited to cars designed by Adrian Newey, in terms of race pace.
So, expect the Blue cars to quickly pull away from the rest of the field today. If anyone has a chance of challenging the Red Bulls, it will be former teammates Lando Norris (McLaren) and Carlos Sainz (Ferrari). Sainz is coming off a victory in Melbourne, while Norris is eager to secure his first Grand Prix win.
Leading the pursuit of the Red Bulls, Norris provided a reality check: “It’s difficult, Sergio is doing a great job. So, there’s one car that’s much harder to keep up with. But we showed last year, when we were further behind them, that we could stay in touch and not be too far behind. So, that will be our goal.”
“But realistically, we’re still too far away to challenge them. They are simply too fast for us. Yes, we may be quicker in qualifying, but in the race, they usually pull away even more,” Norris added.
Fernando Alonso is always an exciting presence on the grid, but it remains to be seen what he can achieve starting from P5. The Aston Martin AMR24 has proven to be a challenging car to drive, as Lance Stroll can attest from his position down in P16. If the first three races are any indication, Alonso may struggle to maintain his position.
It will also be a challenging race for Oscar Piastri, as he aims to compete with the top teams in his McLaren. Similarly, Charles Leclerc’s performance has declined, while Sainz’s has improved. This raises the question of whether Ferrari made a mistake by choosing to let go of Leclerc for the 2025 season. Leclerc will need to prove himself to convince his bosses that he is the right choice to partner with incoming driver Lewis Hamilton next year.
Speaking of which, Mercedes continues to struggle with their package. It seems that they make changes to their car’s setup, hope for the best, and then anxiously analyze the data. They still don’t know whether they will have a competitive car or a very uncompetitive one for each race.
Will Lewis Hamilton and George Russell face setbacks today in Japan? It’s a 50/50 chance, depending on which version of the W15 car shows up on Sunday.
Other storylines to watch out for in the Japanese Grand Prix: