If it hadn’t been for a technical issue with Oscar Piastri’s car during qualifying, McLaren could have secured the front row of the grid for the Chinese Grand Prix sprint. However, Piastri’s car experienced a momentary confusion in the gripless conditions, causing him to start seven places behind his teammate Lando Norris, who claimed pole position. Norris’s lap time was over a second faster than Lewis Hamilton in the Mercedes and over two seconds quicker than Max Verstappen’s Red Bull, who will start fourth. Fernando Alonso’s Aston Martin separates Hamilton and Verstappen on the grid.
The unpredictable SQ3 session, affected by rain and a slippery track surface, made tire temperatures crucial. McLaren performed exceptionally well in this aspect, unlike Red Bull, whose tires failed to warm up properly. Verstappen described it as driving on ice. Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc also struggled with the lack of grip.
In terms of performance, McLaren’s position is unclear. In dry practice sessions, Piastri was the second fastest, but his time was 0.3 seconds off Lance Stroll’s pace. This suggests that the headline times may not accurately reflect the true performance of the cars. In SQ2, with initially dry conditions, Piastri and Norris were fourth and fifth respectively, with Piastri around a quarter-second slower than Verstappen and Leclerc. This seems to be a more representative indication of their performance in dry conditions.
If the Sprint race is wet, McLaren’s advantage becomes more apparent. This is due to the team’s wing choice and the track surface coating, which enhances the effectiveness of the wing. McLaren and Sauber, both carrying more rear wing than Red Bull or Ferrari, made it into Q3. However, McLaren’s DRS performance is lacking compared to its competitors. While it is competitive on the straights without DRS, it loses out significantly when the feature is enabled.
The weather forecast and McLaren’s DRS deficit have influenced the team’s compromise between straightline speed and downforce. The team prioritizes downforce, which is more beneficial in wet conditions. The new track coating, applied in 2023, has significantly reduced grip, especially in wet conditions. This benefits cars with higher downforce levels, like McLaren. The coating is already wearing out on the racing line, so McLaren’s advantage may not be as significant in the wet sprint.
In dry conditions, McLaren loses its laptime advantage and becomes vulnerable to being overtaken into the hairpin at Turn 14. During practice, Norris appeared to be the fastest, but this is misleading as he was on the hard tire compound, while the faster Red Bulls and Ferraris were on mediums and softs respectively.
Behind the seemingly chaotic order of the grid, there is a sense of normality and strategy at play.