The pre-season Formula 1 testing concluded in a fairly understandable manner. Max Verstappen, who finished fourth on the final day, set a quick lap time of 1m30.755s early on Friday afternoon using mid-range C3 tires. This time, when adjusted for fresh C3 tires, equates to a lap time of around 1m30.5s.
The three cars ahead of the Red Bull on the final timing screens – the Ferrari, the Mercedes, and the Sauber – all achieved their times using the C4 tire, which is approximately 0.6s faster than the C3.
When theoretically adjusting everyone’s times to fresh C3 tires, the Red Bull appeared to have an advantage of about 0.4 seconds over Charles Leclerc’s Ferrari and George Russell’s Mercedes over a single lap. The Ferrari consistently showed strong pace throughout the three days of testing, while the Mercedes only demonstrated its true potential late on the final day.
Moreover, Mercedes did not conduct a race simulation, focusing instead on shorter runs to evaluate test items. Therefore, the full extent of Mercedes’ performance is unknown. However, even discounting the C4 tire that Russell used to set the second-fastest time, his lap time on C3 tires closely matches that of Leclerc. This suggests that Ferrari may have a slight edge over Mercedes based on the observed data. However, it is important to note that the fuel weights are unknown.
The fact that no one came close to Carlos Sainz’s time of 1m29.9s on C4 tires from Thursday implies that the track may have been slower on the final day. Comparing Sainz’s performance on day two with Perez’s, Sainz had a slight advantage of around 0.1s. On Friday, when adjusting for tire differences, Verstappen outpaced Leclerc by 0.4s.
Using Verstappen’s theoretical fresh-tyred time of 1m30.5s as a baseline, the approximate order of one-lap pace is as follows:
Red Bull
Ferrari/Mercedes + 0.4s
McLaren +0.5s
Aston Martin +0.6s
RB/Williams +0.9s
Sauber/Alpine/Haas +1.0s
Sauber replicated its strategy from a few years ago by producing a last lap flyer on the softest tire compound. This allowed Zhou Guanyu to achieve the third-fastest time. However, based on previous performance, Sauber appears to be in a closely contested group with RB, Williams, Alpine, and Haas.
The picture changes slightly when considering the race simulations. Red Bull, Aston Martin, McLaren, Williams, RB, Sauber, and Haas all completed a three-stint race simulation. Ferrari only completed the first two stints and a partial third before the session ended. Mercedes and Alpine did not attempt a race simulation.
Verstappen recorded the fastest race simulation, significantly more competitive than Perez’s simulation from the previous day, where Perez seemed to encounter issues. In the two stints completed by Leclerc, his pace was on par with Verstappen’s. However, without the completion of the third stint, it is difficult to fully validate Leclerc’s performance.
Ferrari team boss Fred Vasseur acknowledged that the tire degradation was significantly better than the previous year, suggesting that the new Ferrari may have sacrificed some one-lap pace in exchange for improved race pace. Overall, it has been a highly promising three days for the Scuderia.
Aston Martin’s race simulation was cut short and fell far from the full 57-lap race distance. However, based on Fernando Alonso’s pace, assuming equal fueling, the Aston Martin would finish approximately 16 seconds behind the Red Bull over the 57 laps, potentially behind the Ferrari as well, with the Mercedes as an unknown contender.
Although the McLaren appeared to outperform the Aston Martin over a single lap, its race simulation was not as strong. Oscar Piastri struggled with heavy tire degradation on both the C3 and C1 compounds. In fact, Piastri’s race simulation was slower than Alex Albon’s Williams and roughly on par with Daniel Ricciardo’s RB.
The Haas team performed the weakest in the race simulation, trailing behind the RB by almost half a minute, with Zhou’s Sauber in between.
This summarizes the state of affairs at the end of three days of testing, but some of the gaps are small enough to make the order subject to change.