Although it may appear that Max Verstappen and Red Bull were destined to start the new season with another pole position, in reality, it was Ferrari and Charles Leclerc who missed out on the pole. If Leclerc had been able to replicate his Q2 time in Q3, he would have been faster than Verstappen by 0.014s.
For Leclerc, it all stemmed from the decision made in Q1 to use a second set of soft tires. He was 0.3s behind his teammate Carlos Sainz in that session, who chose to stay in as everyone else went out for their second runs. The track conditions were expected to improve as it cooled down and rubbered-in. Leclerc questioned the decision to use another set of new soft tires even as he lined up in the pitlane.
As it turned out, Leclerc didn’t need to complete that second run and he abandoned it. However, this meant that he had already put mileage on that set of tires. Unlike the Red Bull drivers who had five sets of new tires, Leclerc had only used two of his four sets. One set was needed to get through Q2, and that’s when he set a lap time faster than Verstappen’s pole position.
In Q3, Leclerc did his first run on the scrubbed set of tires before switching to his final new set for his last run. However, he struggled with the used set, losing rhythm and needing to readjust to the new tires and changing track conditions. This resulted in him being 0.242s slower than his Q2 time. Giving away such a significant advantage to Verstappen and Red Bull was disappointing for Leclerc.
On the other hand, Red Bull and Verstappen managed to extract the maximum performance from their car, which wasn’t easy to set up at this track. Verstappen had expressed doubts about the car’s performance after FP3, but it proved to be enough for him to secure pole position.
Verstappen’s absence from the top of the timesheets during practice sessions was initially attributed to conservative engine modes or fuel weight. However, it was actually due to the car being difficult to balance compared to others. This task was particularly challenging at the Sakhir track, where the set-up demands for qualifying and the race were significantly different. The impact of any set-up changes was further amplified by the track conditions and crosswinds.
The Ferrari has traditionally been more accessible in terms of finding the right set-up, especially in changing conditions. In contrast, the Red Bull and Mercedes have required more work to unlock their potential. Verstappen acknowledged the difficulties they faced throughout the weekend but continued to make improvements during qualifying.
It’s possible that Red Bull’s perceived performance advantage may have affected Ferrari’s confidence and decision-making. Despite Leclerc’s comparable lap times, there seemed to be skepticism within the team. The RB20 and SF-24 cars achieve similar lap times but through different means. The Red Bull is faster in sector one, while the Ferrari excels in the downforce demands of the middle sector.
Although Ferrari’s race pace appears to be more consistent this year, it is still slightly behind Verstappen and Perez. Leclerc believes they are closer to Red Bull, but they still have more to show in the race.
The question remains whether Verstappen will dominate the season, leaving Ferrari to battle with Mercedes, McLaren, and Aston Martin, or if we will see a repeat of the early 2022 season. Only time will tell.