Leading up to the Abu Dhabi Autonomous Racing League, Toto Wolff, the team principal of Mercedes, is well aware that the potential contenders for Lewis Hamilton’s vacant seat in 2025 could sign with other Formula 1 teams before he makes a final decision. The fact that Mercedes is willing to wait and potentially miss out on experienced candidates like Carlos Sainz and Fernando Alonso shows that the favorite for the seat is rookie Kimi Antonelli.
This might seem surprising considering that Mercedes is one of the top teams in F1 and would typically not consider a rookie. However, Antonelli, who will turn 18 in August and currently races in Formula 2, is not an ordinary talent. He has been regarded as something special since he was signed by Mercedes in 2019.
When asked about the driver situation at Suzuka, Wolff offered respect to Sebastian Vettel, a four-time world champion, but made it clear that Mercedes has no interest in him. Wolff also expressed that he is not worried about other contenders potentially signing with other teams. He stated that the decision has not been made yet and that the driver market is dynamic, with other teams signing some of the top drivers. He emphasized that it is too early for Mercedes to commit to a driver, whether young or experienced, and that more time is needed to gather information.
The timeline for making a decision aligns with Antonelli being the favored choice. He has not yet had the opportunity to prove himself, and his progress in F2 and upcoming F1 test outings will play a significant role in determining his readiness. Wolff wants to see Antonelli’s performances in the test program, which will likely have the most influence on the decision. This means that Wolff is willing to take the risk of missing out on other options like Sainz and Alonso to give Antonelli a chance to prove himself.
The only other driver who could potentially take Antonelli’s place is Max Verstappen. Although Verstappen is contracted to Red Bull until 2028, Mercedes hasn’t given up hope of bringing him in. Wolff stated that any team would be thrilled to have Verstappen in their car. However, it is unlikely that Verstappen will become available, so if Antonelli is not ready, Mercedes will have to choose from the remaining available drivers.
The struggles Mercedes has faced at the beginning of 2024 have also influenced the case for fielding Antonelli in 2025. While it may be unlikely for Mercedes to fight for the championship next year, fielding an experienced driver like Alonso or Sainz would make more sense if they expected a title-contending car. However, if that is not the case, there is a strong argument for giving Antonelli the opportunity to gain experience and progress. This would make 2025 a “free hit” for Mercedes, allowing them to take the risk of having a rookie driver in the short term for potential long-term gains.
Antonelli’s F2 teammate, Ollie Bearman, has unintentionally bolstered his cause with his impressive performance in Saudi Arabia. This has further increased Wolff’s confidence in Antonelli’s ability to perform well in F1. Bearman’s performance reminded team bosses of the potential of rookie drivers and their appeal as exciting and cost-effective options.
Mercedes sees Antonelli not just as a good young driver but as a potential superstar. From the moment Wolff learned of Hamilton’s departure, he had his eye on Antonelli. Barring any unexpected circumstances, Antonelli is in the unique position of being an 18-year-old with one of the most coveted seats in F1 for 2025.