This offseason has been exceptionally slow, with numerous notable free agents still available in the middle of February. Among them are J.D. Martinez, Michael Lorenzen, Gio Urshela, Tim Anderson, Amed Rosario, Whit Merrifield, Brandon Belt, Tommy Pham, Adam Duvall, Hyun Jin Ryu, Brandon Woodruff, Liam Hendriks, and many others. However, the most noteworthy are the four top free agents who were expected to receive lucrative deals: Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery, and Blake Snell.
As time goes on and these players remain unsigned, it’s essential to consider alternative solutions. If a team was willing to meet their asking price, it likely would have happened by now. If they can’t find what they’re looking for, they may need to open themselves up to other possibilities. Circumstances can change unexpectedly, as seen with the Orioles losing Kyle Bradish to a sprained UCL. This illustrates that plans can quickly shift for any team.
In situations like this, players sometimes opt for short-term deals with high average annual values and opt-outs. Carlos Correa, for example, signed a three-year, $105.3MM contract with the Twins in 2022. This provided him with a substantial salary and security in case of injury or performance decline, while still allowing him to maximize future earnings. Correa eventually triggered his opt-out and signed a $350MM deal with the Giants. This path can be appealing, as shown by Correa’s ability to secure a $200MM guarantee even after his initial deal fell through.
However, there are arguments against Snell taking a similar approach. He is coming off a Cy Young-winning season and had an impressive performance overall. Yet, he hasn’t consistently maintained this level of success throughout his career, with less impressive seasons in between. Additionally, there is the risk of injury or a decline in performance if he were to sign a short-term deal. Snell is also 31 years old, so his age could impact his market value in the future.
The odds of Snell finding better opportunities in next year’s market are low. The upcoming free agency class is stacked with talented pitchers, making the competition fierce. Furthermore, the current market conditions aren’t favorable for players, as teams are hesitant to make long-term commitments. This is evident in the reduced spending by clubs like the Padres, Rangers, and Twins compared to previous years.
While there are uncertainties surrounding Snell’s future, there is a possibility for him to maximize his short-term earnings. Trevor Bauer took this approach when he signed a three-year, $102MM deal with the Dodgers. Snell could aim for a record-breaking average annual value and secure a significant payday. This would give him the opportunity to return to free agency in the future and potentially secure a more substantial long-term deal.
However, the short-term path comes with risks. Injuries can derail a pitcher’s career, and the market conditions may not improve in the future. This is why having a guaranteed contract is often the preferred choice. Ultimately, the decision lies with Snell, and it’s up to him to weigh the pros and cons and determine the best course of action.
What are your thoughts? Should Snell prioritize the best guarantee available now or focus on maximizing his short-term earnings with a path back to free agency? Cast your vote in the poll below!
According to the Source mlbtraderumors.com