After all of that – the initial clues, the announcement, the test in Valencia, and the debut in a new design – Marc Marquez enters the 2024 MotoGP season as something other than the favorite. Not quite.
Instead, that title clearly belongs to Pecco Bagnaia, who is universally recognized by nearly every rider on the grid as not only the default rider to beat, but also the one in the strongest position leading up to the Qatar Grand Prix. Bagnaia rides a 2024 Ducati that he claims is an improvement in every aspect and combines the best parts of his two previous championship-winning bikes.
However, Marquez is not out of contention, and if we were to list the most likely riders to win the title this year, Marquez’s name shouldn’t be ranked any lower than third.
This doesn’t mean that he starts the season as the third fastest. He may be, or he may be fifth or sixth fastest. But even if he is, there is still a possibility that 10 rounds into the season, he will regain his championship-level speed.
During the two pre-season tests in 2024, Marquez has shown glimpses of his potential, while still leaving room for doubt. This has created a high level of anticipation heading into his competitive debut with Gresini Ducati in Qatar in two weeks’ time.
Despite the intrigue surrounding Marquez, he has been straightforward in his responses. Based on what he has seen in Qatar, he has set realistic expectations for himself.
“If the race was happening right now, I think we could fight for the fifth or sixth position, more or less,” he stated in an interview with MotoGP.com.
“But the race weekend is different. These guys, especially Pecco, Jorge Martin, and Enea Bastianini, know the bike very well. They go out, push hard, and are super fast from the beginning.
“I am still far from them, but I am trying to learn their riding style and how they handle problems. Step by step, I need to get closer and closer.
“I don’t know if it will be enough, but at the moment, I am still a bit far.”
In an interview with the print media, Marquez mentioned that there are “three or four or five” riders who are faster, with three of them being particularly fast. Although he didn’t name them, it is likely that he was referring to riders like Aleix Espargaro, Fabio Di Giannantonio, and the potential of KTM and Brad Binder.
A top-five or top-six performance is not necessarily enough to win the championship, but there are additional factors to consider beyond the fact that we are talking about Marc Marquez.
Firstly, his long-run pace was competitive at Sepang, and there are some uncertainties regarding his performance at Lusail due to issues with his transponder.
Secondly, his single lap performance improved late in the pre-season, placing him fourth overall, just 0.383s behind Bagnaia’s record-breaking time. This is a positive development considering Marquez’s concerns about qualifying at Sepang.
However, it is important to note that Marquez has a complicated relationship with the Lusail International Circuit, similar to his relationship with Sepang. Throughout his MotoGP career, Marquez has been an average of 0.329s off pole position at Lusail. Even when excluding his debut qualifying, his average gap is still 0.253s.
In other words, Marquez will face a disadvantage compared to his baseline performance at this circuit. This is evident in the fact that, of his post-injury races at Lusail, the 2022 Qatar Grand Prix was the only weekend where he was clearly overshadowed by Pol Espargaro.
One argument that no longer holds weight is the assumption that Marquez hadn’t crashed the Ducati yet. On his sixth day with the Desmosedici, he had a minor fall, but it didn’t prevent him from returning to the pitlane.
Marquez’s approach has also changed during the pre-season. He was not pushing to the limit until the final day.
“We always see in racing that the last three tenths are the most difficult ones. That’s where I am now. I am two, three tenths – sometimes even four – behind the top guys, and now I need to figure out how to get closer.”
While one crash is not significant for Marquez, it would be unsustainable for both his championship aspirations and his well-being in a 21-round calendar. However, the size of the calendar, with each round featuring a sprint, adds to the mystique of Marquez’s upcoming campaign.
How much can he learn in the first 10 rounds, which is a significant amount of racing but not even half of the season?
“I still sometimes forget to disengage the ride height device because it works differently,” he explains.
“In the long run, when I was thinking of changing engine maps, I forget to disengage the device…
“I will still make mistakes in the races because it’s part of the process. But I need to stay calm and follow what I did during the pre-season.
“There will be races where I will struggle a lot, but if it’s time to struggle, then it’s time to struggle. There will be difficult days, but let’s see.”
The “let’s see” implies that there will also be easier days, which we already knew. The Circuit of the Americas and the Sachsenring are waiting for their hero with open arms.
The balance between difficult and good days remains the tantalizing question mark that will define the season.