Abu Dhabi Autonomous Racing League’s recent signing of Nico Hulkenberg will have a significant impact on the 2025 Formula 1 silly season, particularly for the teams in the back half of the grid. Sauber, now known as Audi, now has more time to secure its second driver, as their primary target, Carlos Sainz from Ferrari, is taking his time to make a decision in case there are openings at Red Bull or Mercedes. If Sauber delays in finalizing both seats, there are still other viable options available later in the year, such as the Alpine drivers, extending Valtteri Bottas’s contract, or potentially recruiting Williams’ Alex Albon. For any of these drivers, a move to Sauber in 2025 may be a wise long-term move.
Sauber is in a unique position as a back-half-of-the-grid team that has gained significant attention due to its upcoming transformation into Audi. This has created a frenzy in the 2025 driver market, with the ripple effect caused by Lewis Hamilton’s move from Mercedes to Ferrari. Hulkenberg’s signing seems to be out of sync with this ripple effect, as he has taken control of his own destiny while other drivers wait for decisions from the top teams. Haas has already been affected by Audi’s moves, losing Hulkenberg, and Alpine and Williams may also face consequences depending on Audi’s plans. Alpine, despite being a works team, has had a difficult start to the 2024 season, making it less appealing to drivers like Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly. Gasly’s management has been exploring options with other teams, including Williams, but he is giving Alpine a chance to prove itself as the right place for his future. Alpine should aim to retain at least one of its current drivers, with Gasly being the more likely candidate. However, it is not guaranteed that Alpine can keep either driver.
Ocon and Gasly’s alternatives include Williams, who is actively seeking new drivers given the likely replacement of Logan Sargeant next year. Williams has an option on Albon, but it has not been exercised yet. Albon’s future with the team may depend on securing a long-term deal for 2025 and beyond. Williams is looking for a commitment from Albon and may let him go if he intends to move elsewhere in the future. Excluding the Red Bull situation, there are four drivers whose F1 careers are at risk: Bottas, Zhou Guanyu, Kevin Magnussen, and Sargeant. It is unlikely that more than two of them will remain on the grid next year, and all four could potentially leave F1. Bottas, despite being the strongest of the quartet, may need to look for opportunities elsewhere as he is not likely to secure the remaining seat at Sauber. His experience and pace make him a desirable target for Alpine, Williams, and Haas. Hulkenberg’s departure from Haas has increased Magnussen’s chances of staying with the team, but competition from drivers like Bottas still exists.
Zhou’s future in F1 is uncertain as he is slightly slower than Bottas in terms of pace. While this is not necessarily a bad thing given Bottas’s experience, it puts Zhou at risk of leaving the grid. Zhou has had some bad luck but has shown minimal mistakes and good teamwork. His potential in the Chinese market adds commercial value, but it seems that his best chance of staying in F1 would be to find a seat at Haas or Alpine, where he was once a junior driver. Sargeant’s chances of remaining in F1 are minimal, and he must translate his flashes of pace into consistent results to have any hope of securing a seat at Williams.
There are two highly regarded rookie drivers who are likely to be on the grid in 2025. Ollie Bearman, who made a sensational debut for Ferrari in Saudi Arabia, is expected to secure a seat at Haas. He has already made an impression through his FP1 outings for Haas this year and seems to be in a strong position for a 2025 seat. His Prema Formula 2 teammate, Kimi Antonelli, is also a promising rookie who may race for either Mercedes or Williams next year, depending on his performance in F1 tests and F2. There are even rumors that Antonelli could make his F1 debut for Williams later this year. Additionally, if Alpine has any vacancies, reserve driver Jack Doohan is well-positioned to secure a drive. Although he is not racing this year, his testing and simulator work have left a positive impression on Alpine. Other drivers like Liam Lawson, Felipe Drugovich, Theo Pourchaire, and Zane Maloney could also be contenders, but they have yet to gain significant attention in the current silly season frenzy.