Growing up in Canada with strong influences from NASCAR and IndyCar, I have always been captivated by racing under the lights. Everything is enhanced at night, especially the thrill of racing. Just as the illumination provides clear visibility for the drivers on the track, the first qualifying session in F1 has brought clarity in determining the hierarchy of the new challengers within the teams.
All F1 news sources predicted a direct battle between Ferrari and Red Bull Racing, and the outcome is exactly as anticipated. It is important to remember that Bahrain has not always been favorable to the dominant car, even though this is just the initial assessment. Max Verstappen secured a comfortable victory last year with a margin of nearly 40 seconds. However, between 2017 and 2019, Ferrari stole the spotlight from their clearly superior rivals at Mercedes. Personally, I have always had a hunch that Bahrain is similar to circuits like Singapore, Brazil, and Austria, where the dominant car is not always rewarded.
Launching straight into the 2024 season, it seems that Bahrain is favoring the RB20, despite the challenging practice sessions for both Sergio Perez and the defending champion, Max Verstappen. In the qualifying sessions of 2023, Red Bull, usually driven by Verstappen, consistently held a two-tenth advantage over the nearest non-Red Bull competitor. As the seasons progress and the cars evolve rather than undergo revolutionary changes, these patterns tend to remain fairly consistent.
Once again, Verstappen claimed pole position for the Bahrain GP, following the pattern established in 2023. However, it was not a straightforward affair, as Charles Leclerc in the Ferrari delivered a lap in Q2 that surpassed Verstappen’s subsequent Q3 pole lap. As a traditionalist, I believe that the fastest lap should determine the pole position. Therefore, when analyzing the numbers, Leclerc reigned supreme today.
Alpine had a challenging session, and it was evident to all that it did not go well for them. To make matters worse, their A524 car had the worst year-on-year progression among all teams, performing worse than their best qualifying lap from 2023 by -0.121.
Interestingly, Red Bull Racing also struggled, coming in as the second worst performer with a year-on-year lap time improvement of -0.529.
There has been a lot of hype surrounding Red Bull and their new RB20 car, with equally strong criticism of Alpine’s A524. However, the truth is that the RB20, driven by Checo, has only improved at a similar rate to the Alpine. It may sound unbelievable, but that’s what the numbers show.
Despite all the discussions about Red Bull’s greatness in the offseason, they are still the cars to beat. However, they now have competition and need to work harder to stay ahead.
If we look at the previous year-on-year results from Bahrain GP qualifying, Red Bull consistently made above-average progress from 2014 to their championship-winning campaign in 2021. This is the first time in 10 years that they have shown below-average improvement.
On the other hand, McLaren has made significant improvements in lap times, but it’s not particularly newsworthy. The team had well-documented struggles in early 2023 with their previous car. However, they have made significant progress over the year, as seen with Oscar Piastri’s win in the Qatar Sprint.
This is good news for Ferrari and Mercedes, who have shown average improvement. The Mercedes W15 has improved by -0.855 compared to last year, while Ferrari’s SF-24 is just behind, ranking 6th overall with a -0.835 improvement from their best lap in 2023.
Williams had a relatively quiet session, but the numbers are promising for them. They have made significant changes to their car compared to last year, and Alexander Albon’s best lap secured them the 13th starting position. Their FW46 car has shown the third-best overall improvement, being -1.240s faster than last year.
It is still too early to draw any definitive conclusions. These results only provide a rough idea of what’s to come. But as always, Formula 1 never fails to provide excitement, and the race for development is officially underway!