The NCAA is defunct and college football is undergoing a period of rapid transformation unlike anything we have ever seen before. The NCAA, often referred to as the Berlin Wall of college athletics, has been dismantled, making way for unbridled capitalism in major college sports. In just over a decade, we have witnessed a shift from quarterbacks being suspended for selling autographs to quarterbacks earning millions of dollars annually to play college football. The states of Tennessee and Virginia have recently filed lawsuits that essentially declare war on the NCAA, which has governed college athletics for the past century.
It is highly unlikely that the NCAA will have any control over the future of college football. With the introduction of a 12-team playoff this year and the influx of fan interest and money into the sport, now is the opportune moment to establish long-term decisions that prioritize the players, teams, and the sport itself.
The most logical path forward, one that ensures the preservation of the sport for its ardent supporters, is for the top college football teams in America, particularly those in the SEC and the Big Ten conferences, to break away from the existing college ecosystem and become for-profit businesses. Although this transition may present challenges initially, it would ultimately establish the second most valuable sport in America, trailing only the NFL, and provide stability and substantial growth for generations to come.
The time for action is now. While this column does not offer a detailed business plan or address every legal obstacle, it does provide a framework that lays the groundwork for a thriving future of college football. After careful consideration, I am convinced that this is the inevitable direction for college football. The only question that remains is how quickly we can reach this destination.
Here are seven key issues that must be thoroughly examined and resolved to pave the way for a profitable future of college football:
1. College football’s media rights are significantly undervalued. Currently, the rights to college football are sold piecemeal, with conferences individually marketing their regional packages. This fragmented approach has resulted in a substantial revenue gap between college football and the NFL. By consolidating and packaging the media rights of major conferences like the SEC and the Big Ten, college football can unlock billions of dollars in potential profits.
2. The absence of a collective bargaining agreement and employee status for players leaves college football vulnerable to antitrust lawsuits. The current system, which allows players to transfer freely and engage in NIL deals without restrictions, undermines team planning and governance. In contrast, professional sports leagues like the NFL provide stability and security for players through contracts and restricted free agency. To address this issue, college football players must be recognized as employees and negotiate a collective bargaining agreement that ensures fair treatment and resolves antitrust concerns.
3. The majority of college athletes do not possess significant NIL value. The current NIL landscape primarily benefits football and men’s basketball players, who have market value beyond their college scholarships. While these athletes should retain the freedom to engage in endorsement deals, it is important to acknowledge that the majority of players have limited endorsement potential. The revenue generated by media rights and ticket sales should be the primary source of income for college football players.
4. The process of purchasing college football teams would involve assessing their revenue, costs, and profitability to determine fair market value. The individual teams would then be acquired, and the proceeds would be given to the universities to support their athletic departments. While certain teams would be more valuable than others based on their financial performance, it is advisable for the entire league to be owned by a single entity, similar to the UFC or WWE, to maximize business management efficiency.
5. Colleges and universities would likely receive a negotiated percentage of the football program’s profits to fund their existing athletic programs. Currently, football revenue subsidizes the operations of other sports teams, many of which operate at a financial loss. By increasing profits and redirecting funds, athletic departments can continue supporting a range of sports. However, it is crucial for well-managed athletic departments to utilize the funds effectively, as weaker departments may struggle without the financial backing of college football.
6. The question of whether men’s and potentially women’s basketball should also transition to a for-profit model would require further consideration. While men’s basketball, like football, generates revenue, it is considerably less than what football brings in. Therefore, for the time being, the focus should remain on separating football from the existing college model. However, in the future, it is possible to explore the potential for a larger business encompassing college football, men’s basketball, and women’s basketball.
7. The number of teams included in the new for-profit college football league would depend on various factors and would be determined over time. The founding members would consist of the 36 teams from the SEC and the Big Ten conferences. As the TV deals of other conferences, such as the Big 12 and the ACC, expire, additional teams may be included. Ultimately, the new business would likely consist of no more than 50 schools, as not all FBS teams possess the necessary financial support and resources.
While many details and questions remain, the immense opportunity presented by this new paradigm for college football cannot be ignored. The sport is in dire need of repair, and the proposed solutions outlined above would not only address its current issues but also strengthen it for future generations. The sooner we embrace this transformative path, the better off college football will be.