With Spring Training just around the corner for most teams (already underway for the Dodgers and Padres), it’s that time of year when teams start focusing on extending their players. Some teams have already taken the initiative, such as the Tigers signing top infield prospect Colt Keith to a pre-debut extension, the Astros securing franchise player Jose Altuve for another five seasons, and the Royals committing over $288MM to Bobby Witt Jr. in recent weeks.
The Nationals, as noted by MASN’s Mark Zuckerman, have generally avoided giving extensions to their players in recent years. Despite having a pipeline of stars like Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Max Scherzer, and Juan Soto over the past decade, the Nationals have only extended one player from that era, right-hander Stephen Strasburg. However, there are signs that the Nationals may be changing their approach. Catcher Keibert Ruiz signed a $50MM extension with the club last spring, potentially keeping him in D.C. until 2032. As the Nationals aim to contend, Zuckerman argues that they should consider a similar deal for shortstop CJ Abrams.
Abrams, 23, is best known as the former top prospect for the Padres who was involved in the trade that sent Juan Soto to San Diego at the 2022 trade deadline. Before the 2022 season, Abrams was considered one of the top 10 prospects in the sport. Although he struggled in his first taste of the majors, batting just .232/.285/.320 in 46 games before the trade, his exceptional speed, hitting ability, and defensive skills at shortstop convinced the Nationals to part with a generational hitter like Soto.
Since joining the Nationals in August 2022, Abrams has shown promise but hasn’t quite lived up to the high expectations set during his prospect days. In 195 games with the club, Abrams has a .248/.295/.393 slash line, slightly below average according to wRC+. His defense at shortstop has been graded as below average by Statcast’s Outs Above Average, although Fielding Bible’s Defensive Runs Saves paints a slightly better picture. However, Abrams has shown improvement as he gained more experience in the majors. In his final 88 games last season, he hit .265/.325/.442 with 33 extra base hits and an above-average wRC+ of 105. He also stole an impressive 41 bases in 43 attempts, making him a valuable offensive contributor at the top of the lineup. Defensively, he posted a +4 DRS in 2023, putting him in the same category as regular shortstops like Bo Bichette and Javier Baez.
Extending Abrams comes with risks due to his limited track record in the majors. However, the recent extension of Witt in Kansas City showed how expensive pre-arbitration extensions can become once young talents establish themselves. The potential cost savings if Abrams reaches his full potential make an extension worth considering for the Nationals. One potential point of reference for a hypothetical extension is Pirates third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes.
Hayes, like Abrams, was a highly regarded prospect when he lost his prospect eligibility in 2021. After an impressive start to his big league career in 2020, Hayes had a more average season in 2021 due to wrist issues. Nonetheless, he has a career slash line of .280/.340/.432, surpassing Abrams’s career figure. While Abrams has shown more speed, Hayes compensates with his elite defense at third base. In 2021, Hayes had a +12 Outs Above Average, ranking in the 98th percentile among qualified fielders. Abrams, on the other hand, had a -9 OAA in 2023, placing him in the 4th percentile.
Considering these factors, it’s reasonable to assume that an extension for Abrams with the Nationals would likely guarantee him at least $60MM, making it the largest guarantee for a shortstop with one to two years of service time in the majors. Speculatively, an eight-year deal in the $60-65MM range with club options would be a fair extension for both sides. This extension would allow the Nationals to maintain control over Abrams until his early thirties, as he is currently set to become a free agent after the 2028 season.
However, it remains to be seen if Abrams would be interested in such a deal. Players who reach free agency in their late twenties tend to have higher earning potential than those who hit the market in their thirties. Additionally, Abrams received a substantial signing bonus as a first-round pick in the 2019 draft, and he is likely to be a Super Two player next winter, which would lead to a significant pay raise through arbitration.
According to the Source mlbtraderumors.com