Kevin Colbert, the former executive of the Pittsburgh Steelers, strongly criticized the use of analytics in the NFL during a recent interview. While he made valid points about the overreliance on statistics in professional sports, he failed to acknowledge certain factors that undermine his argument. According to Steelers Depot, Colbert was asked on The North Carolina Athletic Podcast about the prevalence of analytics in today’s NFL.
Colbert responded, “I do believe they are too prevalent. Towards the end of my tenure with the Steelers, analytics started to come into play, and I would encourage our young scouts to keep me informed about what I might be missing. We had analytics experts, and I used to challenge them by saying, ‘Let me know when you can measure the intangibles.’ Because that’s what truly matters.”
He also applied these criticisms to in-game decision-making, such as determining whether to go for it on 4th down or selecting trustworthy players in crucial situations.
“As a coach or player, you must be able to make critical decisions under pressure. No analytics can measure that,” Colbert stated. “There’s no tangible way to measure it; it’s simply a feeling that a coach must possess and trust in their player’s ability to perform in critical moments.”
However, it is important to note that player skill can be measured. This, rather than intangibles, should be the primary focus.
Every NFL team utilizes “analytics” to inform their decision-making process. Analytics is essentially another term for numbers.
The differentiating factor between successful and unsuccessful front offices lies in the specific numbers they choose to utilize in their evaluations and decision-making. There are basic statistics that provide a superficial overview of past events, such as touchdowns and interceptions, which Colbert and others like him rely on.
However, sports are inherently forward-looking. Past events may not necessarily reflect future outcomes. This discrepancy led to the development of “new” analytics, which aim to identify individual players’ underlying talent levels and the overall strengths and weaknesses of teams.
When it comes to making decisions on 4th downs, “analytics” refers to considering the probability of scoring more points by going for it compared to punting, while also accounting for the risk of a turnover on downs. It does not guarantee success or ensure that a coach is making the correct choice. Instead, it provides data to be incorporated into the decision-making process. A competent coach will then combine this data with intangible factors that cannot be measured.
These intangibles may include factors like player health, seasonal standings, or the atmosphere created by the crowd. However, relying solely on intangibles is illogical because, as we have witnessed in sports time and time again, these supposed intangibles can change over time. Players who were once considered “clutch” may fail in crucial moments, while others who were labeled as “chokers” may rise to the occasion. Balancing numbers and intuition is crucial. Disregarding numbers, on the other hand, is regressive and overly simplistic. I apologize, Kevin, but your standpoint falls short in this regard.
According to the Source outkick.com