Although we associate automatons with the future, the reality is that humans initially envisioned mechanical contraptions capable of independent operation using air pressure, steam, and water over two thousand years ago. The initial human-like automatons were constructed in the 1920s, and authors of science fiction let their imaginations soar from that point forward.
The term “automaton” itself was coined by the Czech writer Karel Capek in his play “R.U.R. (Rossum’s Universal Robots),” published in 1920. The term is derived from “robota,” which signifies work in numerous Slavic languages. Based on this, Isaac Asimov created the concept of “robotics” as a field of study for automatons. While science fiction literature ignited the imaginations of countless teenagers, things truly took off with the advent of movies.
Nevertheless, automatons encountered difficulties transitioning from the realm of science fiction books and films to the real world. Even as technology advanced, automatons have not made significant progress. Certainly, we possess numerous highly specialized machines capable of endlessly performing repetitive tasks with utmost precision, but that was not the vision of Asimov and his contemporaries. We desire walking, talking, and, above all, thinking automatons, and this achievement has yet to be realized.
With the advancements in artificial intelligence, it was merely a matter of time before humanity would revisit the age-old concept of a humanoid automaton. I anticipate that these two fields will progress in tandem, as one cannot conceive of an advanced automaton without considering artificial intelligence. Otherwise, it is simply a metal box programmed to perform specific tasks and nothing more. Intelligent automatons, on the other hand, are on the verge of revolutionizing the world, and this transformation will occur rapidly, to the extent that the majority of us will witness it within our lifetimes.
Automatons: their origins and evolution
If we set aside imagination and science fiction, automatons may appear as an ordinary facet of our world. We frequently hear and employ this term, albeit not to describe mechanical replicas of ourselves. Various industries extensively utilize them to carry out specific tasks that humans either do not desire or do not excel at. In the automotive industry, they form an integral part of modern production lines, assembling components and aiding in the construction of our vehicles.
Specialized tasks were among the initial applications for industrial automatons, as they can execute repetitive movements with greater precision than humans and without experiencing fatigue or distraction. This results in more consistent outcomes, contributing to our perception of superior craftsmanship. Despite occasional conflicts between humans and automatons that tragically concluded in favor of the former, these automatons cannot attain consciousness and solely operate according to their programmed instructions.
In the world of factories and homes, there are various types of robots that serve different purposes. While some robots, like vacuum robots, are designed to efficiently clean your house, others are used in factories to transport supplies. These robots are specialized and operate in controlled environments.
Although the idea of humanoid robots has always fascinated people, the reality of having robotic butlers might still be a distant dream. However, modern robots have become increasingly prevalent in various industries, including the military, healthcare, and research. Even Elon Musk’s Neuralink uses robots to perform complex surgeries. Additionally, Musk himself considers Tesla EVs to be robots. It seems that intelligent cars and humanoid robots share many similarities, and Tesla is actively working on developing both simultaneously.
So, what motivated Tesla to venture into the field of general-purpose humanoid robots? While Tesla only recently announced its entry into this race in 2021, the company has made remarkable progress in a short period. In less than three years, the Optimus bot has evolved from a lifeless dummy on wheels during the 2022 AI Day to a fully functional humanoid robot capable of performing intricate tasks in 2023. This rapid development has impressed many skeptics, leading them to believe that Tesla might be ahead of its competitors in this space. But what drove Tesla to embark on this journey, and why is the company pushing forward with such determination?
According to Musk, Optimus has the potential to become an advanced household appliance in the near future. However, I remain somewhat skeptical about this perspective. Typically, new technologies do not emerge in the realm of household appliances. Instead, they often originate in secretive military laboratories, undergo industrial-scale development in leading corporations, and only then become consumer goods once their potential has been fully explored in the former two areas.
It is more probable that the Optimus robots will begin working for Tesla before being leased to other companies and militaries worldwide. This is similar to what happened with Starlink satellite internet, where Tesla offered it to private customers to help fund the satellite deployment. However, there is another reason why Tesla is interested in humanoid robots. Elon Musk has plans to colonize Mars in the future, and using humans for this task would be challenging, especially in the early stages. From this perspective, Optimus is the ideal choice for the Martian environment.
The hardware: the inner workings of the Optimus robot
During the 2022 AI Day, Tesla unveiled the Optimus robot, which, although not fully developed, showed great potential. Elon Musk acknowledged that there is still much work to be done to refine Optimus and prove its capabilities. However, he believes that in five or ten years, Optimus will be mind-blowing. Based on the limited information provided by Tesla, the 5 ft 8 in (173 cm) tall robot is designed to walk at a speed of 5 mph (8 kph) and can carry up to 45 lbs (20 kg) with its robotic arms. It also has a deadlift capacity of 150 lbs (68 kg) and can extend its arms to lift up to 10 lbs (4.5 kg).
Not bad for a 160-lb (73 kg) robot, although it is likely that the capabilities have significantly improved since then. The second-generation Optimus is equipped with 28 Tesla-designed actuators, reducing its weight by 22 lbs (10 kg). The majority of the redesign efforts were focused on improving the hands, which are now precise enough to perform intricate tasks like threading a needle.
While the actuators and articulated limbs are essential for a humanoid robot, its brain, or rather its artificial intelligence, is crucial. The Optimus robot utilizes the same chips used in Tesla’s electric vehicles for the Autopilot computer. It also relies on the same neural networks as Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system, making them closely related.
The software: the impact of artificial intelligence
Although the tasks expected of Optimus differ from those of a Tesla electric vehicle, they both rely on the same inference computers. Elon Musk has emphasized the importance of the success of Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system for the development of Optimus. After all, a humanoid robot would not be truly intelligent without artificial intelligence. Tesla has made significant strides in expanding its presence in the field of AI and robotics and now positions itself as an AI/robotics company rather than just a car manufacturer.
As demonstrated in Tesla’s previous year’s videos, Optimus has the ability to learn from human interaction and its surroundings. This process is similar to how FSD Beta improves over time by analyzing countless hours of driving footage. However, it’s important to note that Optimus’s actions are not inherently more intelligent than FSD’s ability to avoid pedestrians. Both systems have been trained using real-world data but lack a true understanding of the reasoning behind their actions.
This means that neither FSD nor Optimus possess true intelligence. The real breakthrough will occur when they are able to reason and think critically. Just as humans distinguished themselves from animals with the development of language, allowing them to communicate and share knowledge, robots will experience their own “homo sapiens” moment when they achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI). This is a pivotal moment that many anticipate with both excitement and apprehension.
When it comes to the energy source for Optimus, Tesla plans to utilize its 4680 cells. However, there have been discussions regarding the efficiency of this form factor for a humanoid robot. While the robot’s torso can accommodate 4680 cells, a significant number of cells would be required to achieve the necessary voltage. Assuming Optimus operates on a 48-volt electrical system, approximately 12 cells would need to be connected in series using NCM chemistry to reach this voltage.
Tesla could potentially use a higher voltage to enhance Optimus’s efficiency, but 48 volts is a critical threshold due to its potential danger to humans. Therefore, Tesla would not exceed this value. Even at 48 volts, Optimus’s battery pack would require redundancy in case some cells fail. Ideally, multiple 48-volt modules would be connected in parallel to increase power capacity and ensure redundancy.
According to Tesla, Optimus’s battery will have a capacity of 2.3 kWh. With an estimated 26 Ah for the 4680 cells, two 48-volt modules connected in parallel would be needed to achieve this capacity. Alternatively, if 2170 cells (approximately 5 Ah) were used, 10 modules or five times as many cells would be required. While this would offer more flexibility and easier thermal management, it would also increase costs. This is why Tesla is likely to opt for the larger cells, especially since they are produced in-house.
Photo: @ConnectingODots via X
Optimus must have sufficient battery power for a full 8-hour shift to be truly effective as a work robot on a factory assembly line. However, it is important to acknowledge that humans also take breaks during their work hours. With the current advancements in fast charging technology, Optimus would only require 15-20 minutes of charging time to obtain enough energy for another work session. Additionally, it is possible to have a spare Optimus on hand to fill in when needed.
The advantages of humanoid robots lie in their ability to solve practical problems rather than fulfilling extravagant science fiction fantasies. Their human-like characteristics make them suitable for replacing humans in a world designed for them. This makes humanoid robots ideal for performing repetitive, monotonous, or hazardous tasks. Moreover, they can ensure consistent quality of work as they are not affected by fatigue, illness, or personal issues.
Robots are often presented as problem solvers, addressing issues such as labor shortages. They can work under various conditions and perform tasks that humans tend to avoid. Furthermore, their presence significantly enhances productivity, leading companies to opt for robots over human workers.
Robots offer numerous advantages over humans, including reliability, diligence, and cost-effectiveness. Unlike humans, robots do not require healthcare, go on strike, receive retirement benefits, or take vacations. Additionally, they are more than willing to work continuously, with the exception of necessary charging breaks. Robots can even assist in caring for the elderly, disabled, and provide companionship to those who are lonely.
However, despite the aforementioned advantages, robots also come with significant drawbacks. While they may outperform humans in physically demanding tasks and alleviate them from various responsibilities, this ultimately results in a decrease in job opportunities for humans. Consequently, finding employment becomes increasingly challenging, potentially leading to social unrest.
Elon Musk once stated that people would not have to work unless they chose to do so. However, in a future dominated by robots, individuals may not have the option to work even if they desire to. This raises concerns about how humans can maintain relevance and lead meaningful lives when they are no longer needed in the workforce. Additionally, the robot revolution necessitates a reevaluation of wealth distribution, as many individuals may struggle to earn a livelihood.
These are genuine instances when the widespread presence of robots poses a problem for ordinary individuals. I do not wish to delve into more far-fetched scenarios such as a robot rebellion. However, there is a valid concern that artificial intelligence could evolve into an unstoppable force capable of eradicating humanity. If this were to occur, it would not necessarily require humanoid robots to carry out the task. Nonetheless, these robots would greatly facilitate conventional warfare, as depicted in various books and films.
The potential impact of Optimus bot on Tesla is immense, extending beyond its role as a commercial product. Elon Musk has stated that Optimus bot has the potential to surpass Tesla’s vehicle business, similar to his remarks regarding Tesla’s Full Self-Driving technology. The latter is particularly crucial, as the Optimus program relies on it. Hence, Musk was more direct in stating that Optimus bot could make or break Tesla. Without Full Self-Driving, Optimus bot would be nothing more than a shiny metal toy devoid of any value.
Tesla’s utilization of Optimus bot is virtually limitless, not just as a commercial product. The company will undoubtedly incorporate Optimus bots into its production lines, mineral mines, and potentially all other tasks currently performed by humans. Intelligent robots possess the capability to perform any task, resulting in a society that will soon be unrecognizable.
Similar to Tesla’s approach with cars, the company may choose not to sell the robots at all. The true value of the vehicles lies in their use as robotaxis operated by Tesla, once Full Self-Driving is perfected. The robots will also function as a service, providing few incentives for Tesla to sell them. Even if they are sold, the prices will be prohibitively expensive for all except the largest corporations.
Elon Musk aims to transform X (previously known as Twitter) into “the everything app,” so it should come as no surprise that he desires Tesla to become an all-encompassing company, reminiscent of the ACME corporation from Looney Tunes Cartoons. However, Musk’s ultimate objective, as he frequently emphasizes, is to establish a multi-planetary human race. The presence of humanoid robots significantly facilitates the achievement of this goal.
According to the Source autoevolution.com