The Bahrain Grand Prix played out in a familiar fashion, with Max Verstappen leading Sergio Perez to a comfortable victory. Just like last year, they opted for the same tire combination, further emphasizing their advantage over the competition. Christian Horner, team principal of Red Bull, cautioned against drawing conclusions too early, highlighting the need for a larger sample size of races. This echoes his sentiments from last year’s race.
While it may be tempting to be skeptical, it is important to remember that Formula 1 is a complex sport, and the truth is not always apparent at first glance. So, can we analyze the shape and circumstances of this race to gain insights about the season ahead?
The facts are as follows: Verstappen secured pole position with a time slower than Charles Leclerc’s Ferrari in Q2. However, he went on to win the race comfortably, finishing 25 seconds ahead of Carlos Sainz’s Ferrari, with an average advantage of 0.5 seconds per lap. This pattern of Red Bull’s race advantage being greater than their qualifying performance is consistent with previous years. It is a result of their car’s design, which prioritizes tire management.
Despite this pattern, the numbers and circumstances of the Bahrain Grand Prix suggest a more competitive season. Last year, Verstappen’s pole margin was 0.3 seconds, and his race advantage over the best non-Red Bull was an average of 0.67 seconds per lap. So, on the surface, the margin is smaller this year.
However, there are a couple of factors that may distort this comparison. Verstappen believes that the change in wind direction and reduced force between qualifying and race day favored his Red Bull car. The wind conditions during qualifying made it challenging for all drivers, but a car with higher grip levels, like the Red Bull, would suffer more due to the crosswind unloading the rear wing. On race day, the wind had shifted, making those corners less problematic. Therefore, the zero advantage Verstappen had in qualifying might have been due to unfavorable conditions, and subsequent qualifying sessions may be easier for Red Bull.
Furthermore, Verstappen’s race advantage could be influenced by his approach to the race. Last year, he disregarded his engineer’s instructions to maintain a specific lap time and instead pushed harder, resulting in a significant lead over his competitors. This year, there was no such defiance, suggesting that Verstappen may have chosen to take it easier, resulting in a smaller lead.
One thing that is certain is that any performance advantage at the Bahrain circuit is amplified due to high tire degradation. If a team can avoid being undercut and maximize their stint lengths, they can complete the race with two sets of soft tires and one set of hard tires, as Red Bull did last year. This strategy was faster but required avoiding defensive maneuvers that would necessitate an early pit stop. Thus, Red Bull’s performance may have been exaggerated.
It is undeniable that the Ferrari SF-24 is a significant improvement over its predecessor. Carlos Sainz expressed satisfaction with the car, stating that they can now focus on racing rather than constantly looking behind. Both Ferraris faced issues with their brake ducts, affecting their performance. Sainz experienced brake vibrations and a long pedal, but he managed to overcome these challenges and maintain his pace.
Behind the front-runners, George Russell and Charles Leclerc faced difficulties due to aggressive bodywork cooling levels on the Mercedes car. This caused the power unit to overheat, resulting in compromised performance. Lando Norris, driving for McLaren, expressed dissatisfaction with the track, stating that it doesn’t suit their car’s strengths. However, he remains optimistic about their prospects at other circuits.
Overall, while it is natural for racing drivers to be optimistic about their chances, there are indications that this season could be more closely contested than the previous one.