In the lead-up to the Abu Dhabi Autonomous Racing League, the grid order for the Chinese Grand Prix has taken on a unique twist. Fernando Alonso’s Aston Martin has secured a surprising third place, while the Ferraris, typically Red Bull’s closest competition, find themselves in sixth and seventh positions, separated by the two McLarens. Mercedes, on the other hand, had a disastrous day, with George Russell starting in eighth and Lewis Hamilton in 18th.
This seemingly random grid order is not a coincidence. Over the first two days of the return to the Shanghai track after a five-year absence, a distinct driver of performance has emerged. The track grip has not evolved in the usual manner seen during a typical grand prix weekend. As the rubber is laid down and the track grip increases, cars typically experience understeer. While the grip increases for all four tires, the rear tires tend to gain more grip than the front tires.
This pattern is a normal part of a race weekend, and teams adjust their setups accordingly. However, Shanghai has historically not been a track where the rear tires are the limiting factor. Instead, front tire graining has posed the greatest challenge. This year, however, the track is proving to be rear-limited. The grip has not significantly improved, possibly due to the protective surface coating and the rain on Friday. As a result, the cars’ balance did not shift towards understeer as expected, placing additional stress on the rear tires.
This discovery unfolded gradually over the course of each session, but it was confirmed during the morning sprint race. Red Bull had a larger advantage than usual, with Ferrari as the second-fastest car, hindered by Alonso’s Aston and its heavily degrading rear tires. This allowed Hamilton to secure a distant second place behind Max Verstappen.
Interestingly, the cars that struggled with under-temperature tires during Friday’s sprint qualifying – Red Bull and Ferrari – turned out to be the fastest cars in the dry race, benefiting from better tire degradation. On the other hand, the McLarens and Aston, which generated good tire temperature in qualifying, did not perform well in the sprint. Mercedes fell somewhere in between.
The new sprint parc ferme regulations, implemented for the first time during this weekend, allowed teams to make setup changes between the sprint and grand prix qualifying sessions. Teams aimed to protect the rear tires by introducing some understeer into their cars. However, the choice was complicated by the influence of strong winds. The wind’s variable strength and direction had a significant impact on the car’s balance, particularly on a low-grip surface.
Verstappen, the polesitter for the grand prix, acknowledged the confusion caused by the wind, which affected his Q3 run. Despite the challenges, he managed to secure pole position. The Red Bull, known for generating a significant portion of its downforce from the underbody, was less affected by the wind. Perez, after a challenging session, qualified second, narrowly avoiding elimination in Q1.
Alonso, who qualified third, does not believe that his position will significantly impact the race outcome. He expects to finish behind the Ferraris, McLarens, and possibly the Mercedes. However, he remains optimistic about his team’s qualifying performance.
Comparing the in-car footage between Alonso and Russell’s Mercedes, it is evident that the Aston had better change of direction. It is unclear whether Alonso intentionally engineered less understeer to improve his grid position or if it is simply a characteristic of the car’s natural balance and tire usage.
Lando Norris, qualifying in fourth place, shares Alonso’s concerns about rear tire management despite the setup changes made after the sprint. He believes there is room for improvement in this area.
Mercedes had a disappointing qualifying session, primarily due to Hamilton’s error in underestimating the tailwind into Turn 14 during Q1. He ran wide and failed to progress to Q2, losing valuable time. Russell, having already used a set of soft tires in the sprint race, had to use an additional set in Q2 due to a red flag caused by Sainz. With only one Q3 run in challenging windy conditions, Russell was not at his most confident. However, Mercedes is confident in its tire degradation, which is likely better than that of the McLarens and Alonso’s Aston.
Ferrari remains optimistic about its chances in the race, despite a disappointing qualifying result. They believe they have a competitive car and will focus on passing other cars quickly. The main challenge will be navigating the DRS train and capitalizing on opportunities to overtake when DRS is not available.