In the recent Japanese Grand Prix, Mercedes qualified in seventh and ninth positions, and unfortunately, they were unable to improve their standings during the race. This raises questions about whether their strategy was flawed or if it reflects the difficulties the team has faced this year. It is important to consider just how concerned Mercedes should be about their current situation.
Our writers have provided their opinions on the matter. This weekend once again showcased Mercedes’ potential that ultimately led to a mediocre outcome. While there is still a sense of encouragement within the team, it is evident that they are not what they used to be in terms of short-term goals and realistic prospects.
Toto Wolff, the team’s spokesperson, acknowledged that Mercedes is currently in a phase of rebuilding. They have come to terms with the fact that, even after three years of following the current rules, things have not been working out for them. Additionally, Wolff admitted that Red Bull is currently outperforming them.
Mercedes can now only aim to compete against McLaren, Aston Martin, and eventually Ferrari. While this may seem obvious, it reflects the reality of the team’s situation. They are not deluding themselves about what lies ahead in 2024.
Despite these challenges, there is still a sense of encouragement within Mercedes. The behavior of their car seemed to improve during the race, even though it was not competitive. Perhaps Mercedes now understands their problems and has better control over the tire performance, which had previously hindered their potential by putting too much strain on the rear axle.
However, even with these improvements, Mercedes is still considered the fourth or fifth best team, at least on tracks like Suzuka. The next challenge they face is proving that they can significantly enhance their performance. This requires a substantial amount of progress.
Suzuka provided some hope for Mercedes. While the early races were concerning, there are now signs that they are getting a better grasp of their car. They have made progress in managing the tires and finding the right balance between the front and rear axles, despite still having a disadvantage in terms of downforce. Furthermore, Lewis Hamilton seemed more comfortable with the car during qualifying, indicating that he believes Mercedes is moving in the right direction.
However, the pace deficit is still significant, as was already known before the race in Suzuka. Mercedes has shown that they understand some of their weaknesses and have taken steps to address them. This raises the possibility of further improvement. Even though their performance at Suzuka was far from satisfactory, it is still a step forward.
Perhaps Mercedes has made a genuine breakthrough in understanding their car, although this may have been less apparent at one of their weaker tracks. Nevertheless, this is not enough to overlook the fact that their car is simply not up to par.
The competition in the top 10 is incredibly close, and even a small misjudgment or underperformance can lead to a significant loss of positions behind Red Bull and Ferrari. Mercedes’ cars should not be qualifying and finishing in seventh and ninth places.
If the team has indeed found a solid foundation to build upon with their current car, that is a positive development. However, there is still the challenge of adding a substantial amount of performance to it. Based on the performance of the last three Mercedes cars, there is little evidence to suggest that the team knows what needs to be done next.
With each passing race weekend in 2024, Lewis Hamilton’s decision to move to Ferrari appears to be a wise one. Ferrari has addressed their weaknesses, improved their strategy calls, and solidified their position as the second-fastest team in Formula 1. They are on a trajectory that could potentially challenge Red Bull on certain tracks this year, providing a strong foundation for 2025.
On the other hand, Mercedes seems to be stuck in a cycle of fluctuating between the front and back of the chasing pack in each race weekend. While they are not without hope and will undoubtedly make progress, it is difficult to envision them surpassing Ferrari in terms of speed with their current cars.
Despite all their struggles, Lewis Hamilton can take solace in the progress made by his future employer. It is clear that Mercedes did not have the pace to execute the hard tire strategy gamble successfully.
Furthermore, it is now evident that McLaren, another team powered by Mercedes, is disappointed with their performance. Losing a position to Mercedes on the last lap while fighting for a podium spot with their lead car is a clear indication that the team is not operating at its best.
In the constructors’ standings, McLaren is currently 35 points ahead of Mercedes, a larger gap than the one between Red Bull and Ferrari at the top. This highlights the fact that Mercedes is no longer the best team powered by their own engines.
Perhaps the decision to gamble on the hard tires stemmed from a feeling of desperation, knowing that they lacked the necessary pace. If that is the case, it is understandable. However, if it was based on the belief that they had the pace to make it work, it would be better for Mercedes to accept their new role as a second-rate force in Formula 1 and focus on regaining their position at the top.