Joel Embiid’s withdrawal from the MVP race as he undergoes a minor surgical procedure to fix a displaced flap in his meniscus has created an opening. The expected crowning of Embiid has now transformed into a completely different two-man competition. Despite Luka Doncic’s impressive statistics, his chances are slim as long as the Dallas Mavericks’ winning percentage doesn’t match his offensive output.
In any other year, Embiid’s departure would likely pave the way for Nikola Jokic to secure his third MVP award in four years. Jokic may appear to have paced himself compared to previous years, but that’s only because Embiid was so far ahead of the competition. Jokic currently has the second-best Player Efficiency Ranking in the league and ranks fourth in assists. However, this season, the Denver Nuggets have conserved their energy and remained in the middle of the pack for most of the year. The stage is set for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to contend for the Michael Jordan Trophy. However, there is one issue.
Jokic’s on-off rating of +15.2 is three points higher than SGA’s, highlighting his immense value to the Nuggets. Although Jokic’s advanced statistics have slightly declined, his nightly triple doubles have become less of a narrative edge for voters. According to NBA MVP experts from various media outlets, the rest of the field is still playing catch-up, but SGA has emerged as a legitimate challenger hot on Jokic’s heels. If Jokic experiences a similar decline in performance as he did last year towards the end of the season, the race will become a dead heat.
Initially considered an afterthought in the MVP debate, SGA has quickly risen to the forefront, just like the Oklahoma City Thunder have become the second-best team in the Western Conference. SGA’s evolution showcases the multidimensional nature of his game. Despite playing as a guard, his three-point shooting is not as impressive as one would expect from an MVP contender. Instead, he has excelled by adopting a style reminiscent of the post-Steph Curry era, thriving as an inverted version of Curry. SGA’s strengths lie in his length, physicality, defensive prowess, and preference for scoring inside the arc rather than outside.
When isolated, SGA generates more points per possession than Doncic and boasts a shooting percentage that is six points higher than the Mavericks star. Furthermore, he ranks fifth in points scored in the paint, trailing only Giannis Antetokounmpo, Zion Williamson, Jokic, and Anthony Davis. SGA’s ability to score in the lane surpasses post players like Alperen Sengun and Embiid, as he frequently posts up and converts at an unusually high rate. For comparison, Victor Wembanyama has a less efficient shooting record in similar plays.
Witnessing an MVP-caliber guard break down a defender with his back to the basket feels like a scene from a grainy basketball tutorial video hosted by Michael Jordan or Kobe Bryant in the 1990s. This skill has become a lost art among the league’s elite perimeter scorers, but SGA has reintroduced it. It’s no coincidence that he has more 30-point games through 50 games than anyone in a single season, except for Jordan during the 1986-87 season.
In many ways, Oklahoma City embodies the NBA’s evolution towards positional fluidity, and SGA’s scoring profile is a natural outcome of this evolution. If centers are going to dominate the top of the key and initiate offense, SGA serves as the counterbalance by thriving in the low post and exploiting mismatches. In a league filled with long-range shooters and high-flying slashers, SGA’s ability to operate like a big man in the paint is reestablishing the prominence of jumbo guards in basketball.
Oklahoma City’s success is well ahead of schedule, and SGA’s presence on both ends of the court is a significant factor. Among players who average more than 20 minutes per game, SGA has the highest points differential per 100 possessions when he is on the floor compared to when he is off. Defensively, his 6-foot-11 wingspan presents opposing guards with impossible situations. Night after night, he proves his case for All-Defense honors by leading the league in steals.
The title of the best guard in the league hasn’t been passed to the scintillating Steph Curry acolytes Trae Young or Tyrese Haliburton; it has been claimed by an iconoclast. SGA has faced off against Curry on separate occasions and shut him down. In one instance, he hounded Curry with relentless pressure, deflecting his shots without fouling. In another game, he dominated Curry at the rim, leading to an Oklahoma City victory. In a recent game against the Toronto Raptors, SGA blocked Gary Trent’s three-point attempt and sealed the win in the second overtime.
SGA, the Tim Duncan of jumbo guards, delivers a methodical efficiency that rivals Jokic’s. His shooting percentage of .548 would be the highest among guards averaging at least 20 points per game in the era of the three-point shot. His true shooting percentage, boosted by his reliance on free throws and his scoring prowess inside the arc, ranks as the third-highest among guards in the past 34 years, trailing only Curry in 2021 and his historic 73-9 season in 2016. The only players with higher true shooting percentages this season are Jokic and Antetokounmpo, both standing at 6-foot-11.
What sets SGA apart are his performances against Denver. When Embiid was still in the MVP race, those matchups held significance. Well, SGA has a 3-1 record against Denver this season, including a 40-point game on 70 percent shooting in their most recent encounter on December 29. In contrast, Jokic scored only 19 points on 90 percent shooting in the Nuggets’ 26-point loss. Jokic missed their most recent matchup due to lower back pain but played in the games before and after, avoiding the accusations of avoiding an MVP rival that Embiid faced a week ago.
One by one, the pieces have fallen into place favorably for Oklahoma City. SGA now has two months to complete his quest.
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