World number two Sabalenka entered the match with a record of 11-1 in 2024, having won the Australian Open and finishing as the runner-up at the Brisbane International. She had only lost two sets all year, both against Rybakina.
After choosing not to participate in the Qatar Open last week, Sabalenka started the match against Vekic strongly. She won the first set in a tie-breaker, broke Vekic’s serve in the first game of the second set, and was just one point away from leading 7-6 (7-5), 3-0. However, Vekic produced an incredible passing shot to get back in the game and went on to win 12 of the final 13 games, securing a remarkable 6-7 (5-7), 6-3, 6-0 victory. This improved Vekic’s head-to-head record against Sabalenka to 6-2.
When asked about her most pleasing moment in the match, Vekic highlighted her slice passing shot at break point down, 0-2 in the second set. She described herself as already being “on the beach” mentally at that point.
The result of the match means that Sabalenka will not be able to surpass Swiatek as the world number one after the Dubai event. Swiatek currently has a 1,000-point lead and still has to play her first match in the tournament.
Current rankings:
Iga Swiatek – 9,725 points
Aryna Sabalenka – 8,725 points
Coco Gauff – 6,770 points
Elena Rybakina – 6,643 points
If Swiatek performs well in Dubai, it will be nearly impossible for Sabalenka to overtake her in the Sunshine Double. If Swiatek wins the title this week, she will finish with 10,715 points, giving her a 1,990-point lead. This gap will increase slightly at the start of the Indian Wells Open, as Swiatek will only drop 360 points from reaching the semi-finals last year, while Sabalenka finished as the runner-up.
Swiatek has no points to defend at the Miami Open, which she missed last year, while Sabalenka has 215 points to defend after reaching the quarter-finals. The best Sabalenka can do is narrow the gap to Swiatek by performing better than her in the next two events and then try again during the clay-court season.
Swiatek has points to defend in Stuttgart (470), Madrid (650), Rome (215), and Roland Garros (2,000). Sabalenka, on the other hand, will defend points in Stuttgart (305), Madrid (1,000), Rome (10), and Roland Garros (780). While there may be an opportunity for Sabalenka to close the gap, Swiatek is unlikely to make it easy for her.
According to the Source tennis365.com