World number two Sabalenka entered the match with a record of 11-1 in 2024, having won the Australian Open and finished as the runner-up at the Brisbane International. She had only lost two sets all year, both against Rybakina.
After choosing not to participate in the Qatar Open last week, Sabalenka seemed to be in her usual form early on against Vekic. She won the first set in a tie-breaker, broke Vekic’s serve in the first game of the second set, and was just one point away from leading 7-6 (7-5), 3-0.
However, Vekic produced an incredible slice passing shot to get back to deuce, and from there she dominated the match, winning 12 of the final 13 games. She secured an extraordinary 6-7 (5-7), 6-3, 6-0 victory, improving her head-to-head record against Sabalenka to 6-2.
When asked about her most pleasing moment in the match, Vekic highlighted the slice passing shot she made at break point down, 0-2 in the second set. She jokingly mentioned that she felt like she was already on vacation.
The win means that Sabalenka will not be able to surpass Swiatek as the world number one after the Dubai event. Swiatek currently holds a 1,000-point lead, and Sabalenka still has to play her first match at the tournament.
Current rankings:
Iga Swiatek – 9,725 points
Aryna Sabalenka – 8,725 points
Coco Gauff – 6,770 points
Elena Rybakina – 6,643 points
If Swiatek performs well in Dubai, it will be nearly impossible for Sabalenka to overtake her in the Sunshine Double.
If Swiatek wins the title this week, she will finish with 10,715 points, giving her a 1,990-point lead. This lead will slightly increase at the start of the Indian Wells Open, as Swiatek will only drop 360 points from reaching the semi-finals last year, while Sabalenka finished as the runner-up.
Swiatek has an advantage in the upcoming Miami Open, as she did not participate last year and has no points to defend. On the other hand, Sabalenka has 215 points to defend after reaching the quarter-finals.
Sabalenka’s best chance to close the gap on Swiatek is to outperform her in the next two events and then try again during the clay-court season. However, Swiatek has more points to defend in Stuttgart, Madrid, Rome, and Roland Garros, making it unlikely for Sabalenka to catch up easily.
According to the Source tennis365.com