The National Hockey League (NHL) is constantly in pursuit of goals. Sometimes, this relentless pursuit can have negative consequences, as the league often confuses goals with mere action. In reality, what the league truly desires is to banish the era of low-scoring games to the realm of forgotten history. And it has largely succeeded in doing so. The NHL wants a fast-paced game that showcases the exceptional skills of its players, rather than focusing on the ability of mediocre players to simply ride the coattails of their more talented teammates. And in this regard, the league has been quite successful. There is no doubt that the NHL is currently home to more skillful players than ever before, which is simply the natural evolution of any sport. If your favorite player from 1992 were to step onto the ice today, they would likely find themselves completely overwhelmed by the speed and intensity of the modern game (although Pavel Bure might still hold his own).
As a result of these changes, scoring in the NHL has been increasing over the past few years, although there has been a slight decrease from last year. On average, teams are currently scoring 3.10 goals per game, compared to 3.18 goals per game last year. However, this still represents a significant 13 percent increase from 10 years ago, when teams were averaging 2.74 goals per game. In an article published on The Athletic, Murat Ates and Fluto Shinzawa explore the reasons behind this increase in scoring and the simultaneous decrease in save percentages over the past decade. They focus their analysis on Connor Hellebuyck, the goaltender for the Winnipeg Jets and one of the leading candidates for this year’s Vezina Trophy, awarded to the best goaltender in the league.
Several factors contribute to this trend. One significant factor is the crackdown on goalie equipment, which has forced goaltenders to wear less bulky gear. As a result, there are now more areas for opposing players to target when shooting on goal. Analytics also play a role, as teams have become more aware of the most advantageous scoring opportunities and have adjusted their strategies accordingly. Additionally, there has been an increase in individual skill across all teams. Nowadays, teams no longer rely solely on two scoring lines, a checking line, and a fourth line filled with enforcers. This shift in team composition was long overdue, as it has always been advantageous to have third and fourth lines that possess superior speed and skill compared to opponents who cling to the outdated notion of a fourth line being solely an “energy line.” While the salary cap has made it challenging to assemble such lineups, the influx of young players who are better prepared to play a faster and more skillful game is gradually leveling the playing field.
But to what extent has this shift occurred? This question piqued my curiosity, so let’s delve into some data. Admittedly, the method I employed is rather rudimentary. I gathered forward analytic data from the past 10 seasons (excluding the 2020-2021 season) from NaturalStatTrick.com. I then focused on the bottom three-quarters of forwards in terms of average ice time per game, effectively excluding the top lines of each team. Although not perfect, this approach was the best I could come up with (oh, how I wish I had paid more attention in math class instead of pursuing a stand-up comedy career that yielded lackluster results at best). Next, I examined the bottom half of forwards in terms of ice time per game, aiming to analyze only the performance of the league’s bottom six forwards.
To assess the impact of shrinking goalie pads over the past decade, it is best to examine individual expected goals per 60 minutes of play. This statistic focuses solely on the location of shots and does not consider whether they were saved. Have forwards below the top line been generating more and better scoring chances over the past 10 seasons?
For forwards on the second to fourth lines, there has been a steady increase in expected goals per 60 minutes of play. From the 2013-2014 season, when these forwards averaged 0.609 expected goals per 60, to the current season, where they average 0.703, there has been a 15 percent increase.
Now, let’s shift our attention to the bottom six forwards. While my chart-making skills are not up to par, it is important to note that there has actually been a significant increase in performance, despite the appearance of a smaller increase. Ten years ago, forwards in the bottom half of ice time per game averaged 0.575 expected goals per 60. This season, that number has risen to 0.68, representing an 18.2 percent increase from a decade ago.
When it comes to shot attempts, which are also unaffected by goalie pads, there is slightly more volatility, but the overall trend remains the same. As The Athletic article highlights, teams are no longer fixated on sheer volume of shot attempts, as they were 10 years ago when every team aimed to emulate the Los Angeles Kings’ strategy of dumping the puck into the offensive zone, retrieving it, and bombarding the opposing goaltender from the point to create chaos in front of the net (a strategy that the Carolina Hurricanes still employ). Let’s take a look at the individual Corsi numbers for lines two to four:
And now, let’s examine the Corsi numbers for the bottom six forwards:
The graph for the bottom six forwards shows a steady increase, with a spike in performance from the first group of forwards in the current season. We can see that teams across all lines are prioritizing higher-quality scoring chances, even as the number of shot attempts increases.
While some fans may lament the loss of the gritty, hard-nosed players on their rosters, it is important to recognize that many third and fourth liners are now skilled players who possess a diverse set of abilities. They may not deliver bone-crushing hits as frequently, but that does not mean they are incapable of battling for the puck in the corners, a fundamental aspect of physical play that has somewhat fallen by the wayside. Additionally, faster players are inherently more challenging to hit. The fact that more players in the league can contribute in multiple ways and that the overall skill level is rising is undoubtedly beneficial for the NHL. And for those who still hold onto their Chris Draper dolls, rest assured that their outdated mindset will soon fade away.
According to the Source deadspin.com