Formula 1 teams are notoriously secretive during testing, making it difficult to determine their true performance. Factors such as fuel loads, tire choices, power modes, and track conditions can greatly influence lap times. However, despite these challenges, I will attempt to predict what might happen at the upcoming Bahrain Grand Prix based on the available data.
To analyze the test results, I have converted each driver’s fastest lap time into a percentage. The fastest lap time serves as the benchmark, and each driver’s time is measured as a percentage offset from that benchmark. I have applied the same methodology to each team, taking the fastest driver’s time as representative of the team’s performance.
To account for variations in tire choices, I have adjusted the lap times based on what they would have been if all drivers had used the C3 medium compound for their fastest lap. This adjustment is necessary because softer tires tend to provide faster lap times but degrade more quickly, while harder tires offer more durability but are slightly slower overall.
Based on this analysis, here is my assessment of each team’s performance:
1 – Carlos Sainz 1m30.421s (driver benchmark)
4 – Charles Leclerc 1m30.832s (+0.457%)
Ferrari showed stability and consistency throughout the test. Both drivers performed well, and the car seemed to handle the hard tires effectively. Ferrari finished strong last year and appears to have carried that momentum into the new season. However, I don’t believe they are ahead of Red Bull, but the gap between the two teams will be close. It is likely that Ferrari ran with approximately 25kg of fuel, leaving room for improvement in qualifying.
2 – Sergio Perez 1m30.679s (+0.285%)
3 – Max Verstappen 1m30.755s (+0.371%)
Red Bull initially appeared dominant during testing, but as time passed, other teams improved while Red Bull’s progress seemed to plateau. The car had some initial understeer issues, but those were quickly resolved. I expect Red Bull to perform similarly to last year, but the gap between them and the top teams will narrow. They likely ran with at least 30kg of fuel, indicating room for improvement in qualifying.
5 – George Russell 1m30.868s (+0.497%)
7 – Lewis Hamilton 1m31.066s (+0.717%)
Mercedes introduced a significantly different car this year, both mechanically and aerodynamically. The team is still learning about the new car, but it appeared stable on track, with sharp turn-in and occasional throttle sensitivity. While Mercedes does not yet have a car to rival Red Bull or Ferrari, the new design is expected to be more responsive to future developments. At the moment, Mercedes is likely the third-best team, with McLaren as a close competitor.
6 – Oscar Piastri 1m31.030s (+0.677%)
10 – Lando Norris 1m31.256s (+0.929%)
McLaren’s car showed stability and consistency during testing, with both drivers heading in the same direction. This bodes well for their development direction. McLaren believes it has a positive development path and a car capable of challenging for podium positions. I expect McLaren to be on par with Mercedes, competing for third or fourth-best team. Their two drivers provide a strong lineup that can defend against other competitors.
8 Zhou Guanyu 1m31.147s (+0.807%)
17 Valtteri Bottas 1m32.227s (+2.008%)
Sauber’s car appeared to lack grip on track, using more of the road compared to other teams. The team made adjustments to the car’s balance during the test, including introducing a new underfloor. It is difficult to gauge the improvement from one day to the next due to the changing track conditions. Zhou Guanyu’s fast laptime at the end of the final day suggests a lighter fuel load, indicating room for improvement in qualifying. Overall, Sauber is expected to be in the middle of the midfield pack, performing well on good days and struggling on bad days.
9 – Fernando Alonso 1m31.159s (+0.821%)
15 – Lance Stroll 1m32.029s (+1.788%)
Aston Martin’s performance during testing was surprising, with the car showing stability and consistency on track. The team’s relatively low position can be attributed to fuel loads and a focus on completing the test program without going for glory runs. I expect at least one of Aston Martin’s drivers to comfortably secure a top 10 position, but breaking into the top eight might be challenging.
12 – Yuki Tsunoda 1m31.275s (+0.944%)
14 – Daniel Ricciardo 1m31.861s (+1.601%)
AlphaTauri had a promising test last year, but their performance slumped in qualifying for the first race weekend. This year, Tsunoda’s laptime suggests improvement, and both drivers will be aiming for better results in Bahrain. AlphaTauri has a better car compared to last year, placing them at the front end of the midfield pack. However, there will still be a gap to the top five teams.
11 – Alex Albon 1m31.484s (+1.182%)
20 – Logan Sargeant 1m33.078s (+2.955%)
Williams’ car does not appear to have made significant progress from last year. While Albon has shown the ability to extract a fast lap in qualifying, the car’s performance is crucial for achieving consistent results. Williams also faced reliability issues during testing, which need to be addressed. Finishing races will be essential for Williams to make any significant strides this season.
13 – Nico Hulkenberg 1m31.686s (+1.407%)
19 – Kevin Magnussen 1m33.053s (+2.927%)
Haas’ car looks stable and consistent on track but lacks pace compared to other teams. The team focused on addressing tire degradation issues during testing, conducting longer stints. Hulkenberg’s fast lap at the end of the test suggests a lighter fuel load, indicating room for improvement in qualifying. Haas is expected to be in the middle of the back pack, with sixth-best performance on good days and eighth-best on bad days.
16 – Esteban Ocon 1m32.061s (+1.824%)
18 – Pierre Gasly 1m32.805s (+2.651%)
Alpine’s car appeared inconsistent and challenging to drive during testing. The drivers seemed to struggle with each corner, making similar mistakes. The fastest lap times from 2023 and the testing results indicate that there is still room for improvement in terms of performance. The gap between the top teams and the midfield has widened, which is a concern. Alpine needs to address the car’s inconsistency to compete effectively.
In summary, I expect Red Bull to lead the pack, closely followed by Ferrari. Mercedes and McLaren will be in contention, with Aston Martin not far behind. The midfield battle will be tight, with AlphaTauri, Williams, and Haas fighting for positions. Alpine should be next, but they need to address the car’s inconsistency. Ultimately, the final results will depend on each team’s ability to perform on race day. We will have a clearer picture of the teams’ true performance after qualifying on Saturday.