The offseason of 2023-24 has been unconventional, with numerous moves and signings still to be made. It can also be argued that there are pending trades. Nevertheless, many teams have already finalized their roster additions or are nearing that point. As we approach spring training, it is now time to examine Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections for the 2024 standings.
According to PECOTA, the New York Mets have a 49.2 percent chance of reaching the postseason in 2024, finishing with a record of 84-78. SNY Mets tweeted, “The Mets are projected to finish third in the NL East and have been given a 49.2% chance to make the playoffs, according to 2024 PECOTA standings from Baseball Prospectus.”
The Mets’ projected record of 84-78 is identical to that of the Philadelphia Phillies, as stated by PECOTA. It is worth noting that the Mets were sellers last year, trading away established stars such as Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, David Robertson, Mark Canha, and others. The year 2024 was expected to be a transitional period. However, the Mets possess a strong farm system and a solid core led by Francisco Lindor, Kodai Senga, and Edwin Diaz. If young players like Brett Baty and Mark Vientos show improvement, the Mets could potentially contend. Additionally, their farm system has significantly improved, providing them with the means to make trades and enhance their chances. While 2025 still appears to be a more realistic target for making it to October, PECOTA recognizes that a few fortunate breaks could place the Mets in contention as early as 2024.