The Kansas City Chiefs achieved an impressive feat in Super Bowl LVIII, winning their second consecutive championship and their third in the past five years. Despite Travis Kelce’s outstanding performance in the second half, it was Patrick Mahomes who walked away with his third Super Bowl MVP award.
It is important to note that this is not a critique of the Chiefs’ victory based on luck. They simply outplayed their opponents and emerged as the better team.
However, it cannot be denied that the Chiefs had some fortunate moments in Super Bowl LVIII. When considering the odds, their recovery of six out of seven fumbles is quite remarkable. Typically, the chances of an NFL team recovering a fumble are approximately 50%, similar to a coin toss. Although individual cases may suggest otherwise, on average, NFL offenses recover fumbles 53.16% of the time during the 2023 season, as stated in a statistical analysis on Reddit.
According to the same analysis, the odds of the Chiefs recovering six out of seven fumbles in the Super Bowl were approximately 7%. The math behind this estimation, provided by ‘practialist,’ is as follows:
“P(X = 6) = (7C6)(1/2)6(1/2)1
= 7 × 1/64 × 1/2
= 7/128
= 5.47%
Considering that the average fumble recovery rate in 2023 is approximately 53.16%, the true likelihood of recovering six out of seven fumbles is probably around 7%.”
Additionally, the San Francisco 49ers faced some unfortunate circumstances. Jake Moody, who had an impressive record of 67 successful PATs out of 68, had his attempt blocked. Furthermore, the Chiefs’ 57-yard field goal was perilously close to being blocked but ultimately went through.
While the Chiefs did benefit from their fumble recoveries, the 49ers also experienced some bad luck. However, it is crucial to acknowledge that they should have been aware of the Super Bowl’s overtime rules. Their failure to do so was a significant blunder on their part.
San Francisco possesses all the necessary elements to return to the Super Bowl next season. Coach Shanahan would be wise to emphasize the unpredictability and the instances of ‘luck’ that worked against them, in order to keep the players focused on their goals.
According to the Source brobible.com