Each Super Bowl is determined by a handful of significant plays and key matchups. The specific details of these moments are unpredictable, but once the game concludes, coaches and players will analyze their advanced scouting reports. They will examine how they positioned their players and evaluate their performance from a strategic standpoint. The objective is to identify what went right and what went wrong.
We are not professional advanced scouts at (Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports), but one matchup heavily favors the 49ers. Their running game against the Chiefs’ run defense presents a significant advantage. The 49ers rank fourth in the NFL with an average of 5.3 rushing yards per attempt, while the Chiefs rank 26th, allowing 5.1 yards per carry. This advantage amplifies when San Francisco executes outside runs, utilizing their tight ends and fullback Kyle Juszczyk as blockers. The 49ers lead the league with 5.6 yards per carry outside the tackles, while the Chiefs rank 26th with 4.4 yards per carry allowed outside. When Kyle Shanahan incorporates motion and implements the zone run game, the Chiefs’ run defense, which has struggled this season, will face significant challenges.
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Throughout the season, the Chiefs have employed blitzes on 29% of their snaps. These blitzes have proven to be effective due to the expertise of defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo in deploying them from various angles. However, the 49ers’ quarterback, Brock Purdy, excels at quickly releasing the ball. When facing blitzes this season, Purdy has completed 101 passes out of 150 attempts for 1,534 yards, 701 air yards, 15 touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 128.6. It can be argued that there is no better quarterback when facing five or more pass-rushers, presenting a challenging task for Spagnuolo.
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The 49ers’ offensive strategy revolves around their running game, with Brock Purdy benefiting from it in obvious passing situations. However, in this game, Purdy will aim to avoid third-and-long scenarios. While it may seem obvious that every quarterback wants to avoid such situations, having quarterbacks like Baker Mayfield and Jordan Love, who have excelled in third-and-7 or longer situations, provides an advantage. This season, Purdy has completed 41 of 70 passes on third-and-long for 634 yards, 358 air yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 86.3. Although not necessarily bad, the Chiefs will likely employ dime defense and increase blitzes and disguised coverages in third-and-long situations. This strategy may even pose challenges for Purdy, who has performed exceptionally well against blitzes.
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Some may claim that the 49ers have a “static” defense under Steve Wilks. While this may be true for their front six, as they do not frequently blitz, Wilks showcases his ingenuity through his ability to rotate coverages. Particularly, he excels in transitioning from a two-high pre-snap coverage to a Cover-3 post-snap coverage. The 49ers have utilized Cover-3 more than any other coverage, accounting for 31.9% of their defensive snaps. Additionally, they occasionally shift from single-high to Cover-4, which they have employed in 26.1% of their defensive snaps. Wilks’ proficiency in coverage switches surpasses common perception. While it may not guarantee consistent success against Patrick Mahomes, it will be crucial in slowing down Mahomes’ decision-making process, forcing him to take additional time to locate open receivers.
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The Chiefs have significantly altered their primary run concepts in the postseason. In the regular season, they utilized gap runs on 28% of their rushing attempts, ranking 21st in the league. However, in their three postseason games, they have increased this percentage to 48%. This adjustment has greatly benefited second-year running back Isiah Pacheco, who possesses the power and acceleration required for success in gap running concepts. Pacheco leads the league in runs out of 13 personnel, accumulating 53 attempts for 226 yards, 140 yards after contact, and a touchdown. With gap runs, he has gained 538 yards and scored seven touchdowns on 100 carries. Pacheco faces initial contact at the line of scrimmage on 35% of his gap rushing attempts, but he has only been stopped for no gain or a loss on 15% of them. This implies that the 49ers cannot rely on weak tackles when defending against Pacheco. They must commit to stopping him, as neglecting the run game could create opportunities for Patrick Mahomes, a scenario that no defense desires.
According to the Source touchdownwire.usatoday.com